Wind Advisory 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 300730
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2009

NCZ033-049-050-300830-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-090330T1000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
330 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. 

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A 500 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS EXITING THE NC OUTER BANKS...WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE. OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN
NC MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
WINDS ADVISORY IN THE REST OF THE NC MOUNTAINS AND THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE CANCELED.

NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE AS THE KMRX RADAR SHOWS FEW ECHOES...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
ALONG THE TN BORDER SHOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING BY
06Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WERE RUNNING A BIT WARM IN SOME LOCATIONS AND A
BIT COOL IN OTHERS. ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THESE TRENDS STILL YIELD
SOME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SURFACE
WINDS SPEEDS WILL LIMIT FROST FORMATION TO ISOLATED PATCHES.

MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WAA WILL
YIELD MILD LLVL THICKNESSES AND SCT HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAIR AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURES ARE HIGH AND WINDS WILL BE WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
EASTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE. THE
RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...AND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
ENTER THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROF...A
COUPLED JET WILL PRODUCE A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL FORCING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIP THAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FA. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF PRECIP...THOUGH THE NAM IS JUST A TAD
SLOWER. ALSO...BOTH MODELS GENERATE A NICE PV MAX WITH A SURFACE LOW
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT AND THIS SHOULD FACILITATE THE
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. I HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF PRECIP A BIT...BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS TIMING...TO
MAINLY LIMIT CHC POPS OR BETTER TO AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. I HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THINGS TAPERING OFF QUICKLY WEST TO EAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WITH VIRTUALLY NO INSTABILITY UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY...I WILL CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION THUNDER. I HAVE BROUGHT
IN SLT CHC T FOR THE EASTERN MOST ZONES IN THE 12-18Z TIME PERIOD
WHEN PLAN VIEW CAPES INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG EAST OF I-77...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-40. OVERALL...I EXPECT ANOTHER 0.50-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY WILL BE A SEASONABLY MILD DAY DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT SHOULD HELP OFFSET ANY LOSS OF HEATING TO DUE CLOUD COVER AND
RESULT IN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AS
CAA KICKS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 00Z THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE UPPER LVL PATTERN WHICH
TRANSLATES TO AN ACTIVE REGION OF CYCLOGENESIS OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BY EARLY THURS THE WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND THERE SHOULD BE A VERY BRIEF DRY
PERIOD EARLY THURS. DURING THIS TIME ANOTHER STRONG SFC CYCLONE WILL
BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND PUSH ANOTHER FRONT OVER OUR AREA BY EARLY
FRI. THE LATEST GFS REMAINS FASTER THAN THE OLDER ECMWF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO I TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS FOR THIS FCST. THIS LOW
QUICKLY MAKES ITS WAY UP NEW ENGLAND AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE FRI. ANOTHER WEAK SFC
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STEADILY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE...BY FRI OVER MUCH OF THE UPSTATE. I DID BUMP MAX TEMPS DOWN A
BIT TO STAY IN LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE...HOWEVER VALUES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE NEARLY
CLEAR...UNTIL A FEW CIRRUS MOVE ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BY
WHICH TIME THE LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO WEST SOUTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST AT SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ARE KAND...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT
     AND KAVL...WHERE ELEVATION WILL KEEP GUSTS GOING UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS EVERYWHERE BUT KAVL AND KAND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT
IN THE PROCESS. KAND SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST SOUTHWEST DIRECTION IN
LEE TROUGHING...WHILE KAVL REMAINS CHANNELED UP VALLEY FROM THE
NORTH. BY AFTERNOON LIGHT WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST EVERYWHERE BUT
KAVL....WHILE A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
LATER TUE AND TUE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-301930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
320 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-301930-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-
320 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-301930-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
320 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

BSH