Wind Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 130456
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1156 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-131100-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090213T1100Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1156 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

NORTHWEST WINDS MAY EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT WEAKENING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM BURNSVILLE TO NEWLAND AND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK.
THE WINDS WILL THEN STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 131047
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-131700-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-090213T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0009.090213T1100Z-090213T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
547 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH...BUT
WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM...DRY AND BREEZY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. RH CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN WELL INTO THE RED FLAG RANGE
WITH WIND GUSTING UP AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...SO THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL WORK OUT. MEANWHILE...WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST
ABOVE 50 MPH ON THE RIDGETOPS OVER THE NRN MTNS SO THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL ALSO BE ALLOWED TO RUN ITS COURSE.

THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM WILL BE QUIET AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE
TOP...SO EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CIRRUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  MIN/MAX TEMPS
WERE BOTH NUDGED TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GULF
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS SUPPORT LOWER EVENING POPS THAN THE PRECIOUS
FORECAST...AND THIS FORECAST WILL FEATURE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. AFTER  MIDNIGHT MOISTURE INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WHERE
CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED. MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN
EVENT...AND MODEL INSTABILITY SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A MILLER B TYPE
SCENARIO...WITH THE ORIGINAL LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND A NEW LOW SPINNING UP AT THE THE COAST...WITH
WEAK HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING IN BETWEEN. UPGLIDE OVER THIS COLD AIR
WEDGE WILL FAVOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MODEL CAPE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN
NORTHEAST GA AND UPSTATE SC. IN THE AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT SCOURS
THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND POPS DECREASE
FROM THE EAST. A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS LINGER IN THE EVENING. ON
SUNDAY ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE FORMS BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND A
WEAKER GULF STATE SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED
WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
LOWER...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUMS
TEMPERATURES...THROUGH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER...DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HELD UP BY CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE A BIT COOLER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS COVER DECREASES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST WL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG SRN STREAM JET...W/ A SERIES OF S/WVS TRACKING RAPIDLY
FROM W TO E. ONE OF THOSE S/WVS WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST TO
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SUN NGT THRU MON. THERE LUKS TO BE A
RATHER QUICK SHOT OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE...W/ THE PASSAGE OF
A SFC WV TO OUR SOUTH. THE 12Z/12 GFS KEEPS THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR
PRECIP TO OUR N...WHILE THE 12Z/12 ECMWF HAS COME IN CONSISTENT W/
THE DYNAMICS RIGHT OVER OUR CWFA. SINCE THE ECMWF WAS HEAVILY
WEIGHTED IN THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE...I WENT W/ THE HIGHER POPS FOR
SUNDAY NGT (GENERALLY 30-40% CHC). THE QUESTION IS WHERE THE
FRZG/SN LVLS WILL BE OVRNGT. THE MAIN POLAR AMS LUKS TO BE STILL OVR
THE UPR MIDWEST THRU 12Z MONDAY (W/ H85 TEMPS OF 0 TO -5C IN THE
MTNS AND NC PIEDMONT). SO I JUST HAVE A MIX OF RA/SN FOR MOST NC
LOCATIONS LATE. THE SYSTEM SHUD RAPIDLY EXIT THE EAST COAST...W/
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN NWLY FLOW FOR MONDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL MONDAY.

HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE NW MON NGT THRU TUE...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL.

NEXT S/WV IN SRN STREAM APPROACHES SRN PLAINS STATES TUESDAY
NGT...AS LLVL FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO SWLY/SLY ACRS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA LIFT COMMENCES BY ARND 12Z WED. AS
THE LO PRES SYSTEM DEEPENS/ORGANIZES OVR THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
I WENT W/ HPC GUIDANCE CHC POP FOR NOW...W/ PERHAPS SOME SN/PL MIXED
IN EARLY IN THE HI ELEVS. OTRW...IT LOOKS LIKE JUST A SOAKING RAIN
FOR NOW...W/ NO INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS FOR SIG
CONVECTION OVR OUR AREA.

LO PRES TRACKS NEWD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES
WED NGT THRU THURSDAY. THERE SHUD BE SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE...W/
COLD ENUF AIR FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE NW UPSLOPE
FLOW FAVORED AREAS (TN/NC BORDER). BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
THURSDAY BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE WIND WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A LEE TROF HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KCLT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE WIND NORTH OF WEST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS UPSTATE SC. THE WIND
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AT KCLT AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...FORTUNATELY WINDS SHOULD BE ONLY AROUND 5 KTS. USUALLY IN
THE CASE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD THAT MEANS A DIRECTION
MORE S OF W AT KCLT...SO THAT IS WHAT WILL BE KEPT IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WIND CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WILL NOT BE MET. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD REACH CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS IN NORTHEAST GA FOR THREE
HOURS OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FUELS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
ABOVE RED FLAG LEVELS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-501-503-505.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-132300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
555 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-132300-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-
555 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-132300-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
555 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-132300-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
555 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-130200-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
336 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...

DESPITE A WETTING RAINFALL YESTERDAY...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CAUSE FUEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN LOW
INTO THIS EVNING. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 50 MPH IN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEARING 25
PERCENT. BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED SINCE THIS INCREASED FIRE
DANGER WILL PROMOTE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE. CHECK WITH LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR FURTHER GUIDELINES REGARDING THE FIRE DANGER.

07