Wind Advisory 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND BRING A VERY COLD AIRMASS TO THE REGION. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY ARE JUST
STARTING TO BE OBSERVED OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE WILL FINALLY GET ESTABLISHED INTO THE
WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BECOME QUITE SHALLOW VERY QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PAINT ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF IN THE UPSLOPE
AREA TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 12 TO MINUS 15 RANGE
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH SNOW RATIOS...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
FURTHER CAP ANY ACCUMULATIONS. EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...WILL KEEP THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING FOR VERY LOW END SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE STRONGEST 40 TO 45 KT 850 MB JET SHOULD TRAVERSE THE MTNS WITH
THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION 09Z TO 12Z. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY WRAPPED INTO THE EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF
CALDWELL...MCDOWELL AND BURKE UNTIL NOON WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. A
TIER OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40
MPH. ADDITIONAL WIND PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY IF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED.

THE DEEP AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR
SPILLING INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ACHIEVED EARLY
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING IN THE MTNS FROM MORNING
ONWARD...AND OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUING
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REQUIRE A MOUNTAIN WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT AND
WIND CHILLS DIP TO MINUS 5 TO MINUS 15. A FEW OF THE HIGHEST RIDGE
TOPS COULD APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA WITH WIND CHILLS MINUS 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AS HIGHS/LOWS WILL AVERAGE 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED UPON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND PROGGED THICKNESS VALUES...FRIDAY/S MOS HIGHS APPEAR
TOO WARM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE OUR CURRENT FORECAST OF
MAXES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NC MTNS...TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER SC
PIEDMONT. LOWS FRI NIGHT SHOULD DIP WELL INTO THE TEENS EAST OF THE
MTNS...WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...AS RETURN
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL NEVERTHELESS STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS
THE MTNS SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE ONLY A FEW AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT WILL
MAKE IT TO 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM THURSDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN BTW THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF WRT BREAKING DOWN THE PNA PATTERN AND SHIFTING THE WEST COAST
RIDGE EAST SUN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG RANGE. THIS LARGE
PATTERN CHANGE WILL LEND TOWARD INCREASING MAX TEMPS TO AROUND
NORMAL BY WED AND A DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER THE SUN CLIPPER
FRONT.

ON SUN...THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND DEEPER WITH UPPER TROF THAN THE
GFS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH MOISTER AT H85 AND FOR A LONGER
DURATION THAN THE OTHER OP MODELS. WILL MODIFY THE CHC POPS A BIT
ACROSS THE NC ZONES AS A PROGRESSIVE FROPA IS EXPECTED. QPF WILL BE
LOW AND SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS AND NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES ANTICIPATED. SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE NC MTNS THROUGH THE DAY MON AND ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION TUE. WONT EXPECT MUCH OF A PRECIP THREAT
MON WITH MINI H85 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY AFTER
12Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER INCH OF SN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NC/TN SPINE
AREA BTW 00Z AND 12Z MON.

THE NEXT H5 S/W DROPPING INTO THE AREA IS DISPLACED TO THE NW FROM
WHAT HAS BEEN THE NORMAL TRACK THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE PNA WILL CAUSE THE WAVE TO DIG ACROSS THE MID ATL...SO NO REAL
SIGNIFICANT SN THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS. THE LLVL WINDS
KEEP A SIGNIFICANT W/LY COMPONENT UPSTREAM OF THE MTNS AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE GETS TRANSLATED N OF THE CWFA QUICKLY. ISOL POPS WERE ADDED
TO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE MTN BORDER AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW END
EVENT. A STACKED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EC WED AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THU. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WED...HOWEVER
TEMPS A COUPLE CATS ABOVE THIS WOULDNT BE A SURPRISE IF THIS PATTERN
HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KAVL 08Z TO 09Z...AND THEN EAST
OF KCLT BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR NW FLOW MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE NC MTNS.

AT KCLT...ONLY FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KT WILL TURN NW WITH FROPA
CIRCA 11Z. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW MIXING DEVELOPS...BUT MIXED PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR TO TAP
INTO THE BELT OF MUCH STRONGER WINDS ABOVE 850 MB TODAY. WILL THUS
FEATURE 32012G18KT FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY AFTER FROPA.

ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY AFTER 09Z...WITH MVFR TO VFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS REACHING
KAVL. ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE BRIEF GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE UPSTREAM. ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED AT THE
FOOTHILL TAF LOCATIONS. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL COME UP VERY QUICKLY AT
KAVL...AND DEVELOP EAST OF THE MTNS WITH MORNING MIXING. GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KT ARE QUITE POSSIBLE AT KAVL...BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE CAPPED
AROUND 20 KT FROM KHKY TO KGSP AS MIXING IS NOT TOO DEEP. WINDS WILL
VERY SLOWLY ABATE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...COLD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT TODAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S BEFORE TUMBLING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS NE GA
FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AVAILABLE FROM THE GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION
SUGGEST 10 HOUR MOISTURE OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. PENDING FURTHER
COORDINATION ON THESE ISSUES...THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE
HEADLINED FOR THE DRY AIR. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED...HOWEVER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ033-048>052-058.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ053-059-062>065-
     502-504-506-507-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

NCZ033-048>052-058-152045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
342 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND MINUS 15 THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-152045-
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
342 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 0 TO 5 ABOVE BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND MINUS 10 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-152045-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
342 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND
FREEZING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ507-509-152045-
RABUN-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
342 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND MINUS 10 THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.