Wind Advisory 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 131427
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

NCZ033-050-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-131530-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-090413T2200Z/
AVERY-MITCHELL-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1027 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. 

BASED ON THE LATEST DATA....WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY.

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-049-051>053-058-059-062-063-132200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-090413T2200Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
1027 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3500 FEET.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ALSO...
THE STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW SOME TREES OVER RESULTING IN ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.

$$
LG

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 131841
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009


GAZ010-017-NCZ048-049-051>053-058-059-062-063-131945-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-090413T2200Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MADISON-YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
241 PM EDT MON APR 13 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. 

THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED. 

$$

LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST W/V LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH A PLUME
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINEAR MCS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. NEAR
TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT...REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO TRACK NE ACROSS THE MID WEST...KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER MOIST WAA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO RICH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEAR THE GULF COAST TODAY. THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...PW VALUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL REACH
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHRA TODAY. COVERAGE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. OVERALL...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS EVENT WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT FROM AN INCREASE IN LLVL
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF I-85.
ACCOUNTING FOR JUST SHRA...IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS ABBEVILLE/GREENWOOD COUNTIES TO 3/4
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NRN MTNS.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAINING A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH CAD WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS
EVENING..I WILL ADJUST TODAY/S HIGH A LITTLE WARMER. I WILL FORECAST MID
50S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS WITH AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND WESTERN NC MTNS. TEMPS MAY COOL 5-8 DEGREES FROM DAY
TIME HIGHS TONIGHT. VERY MOIST BL CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG. I WILL INDICATE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...I/VE FOLLOWED ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
IN HOLDING ON TO COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS...WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE UPSTATE ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE
MY MAX TEMPS ARE LOWER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FA...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE NOT TOO FAR EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 85.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FA UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY FOR
TUE. WHILE THE BEST LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION...A FAIRLY STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CAD BNDRY. THE
SREF SHOWS FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE NE
UPSTATE AND NC PIEDMONT TUE AFTN...AND THIS IS WHERE TSTMS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WED. DEFORMATION ZONE
PCPN AND HIGH LAYER RH VALUES WILL BE CONFINED TO VA WITH THIS
EVENT. BUT THE COMBINATION OF NW FLOW MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES CLIPPING THE NRN ZONES WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MTNS
AND PERHAPS THE NRN FOOTHILLS TUE NIGHT AND WED. A POOL OF BELOW
FREEZING H8 TEMPS WILL MOVE INTO THE MTNS TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4KFT. ANY SNOW TOTALS LOOK
TO BE QUITE MINIMAL ATTM.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT. THE SWATH
OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE BROUGHT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FA
WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. WITH LIMITED FORCING THERE
SHOULDN/T BE MUCH PCPN...BUT THE NIGHT MAY BE CLOUDIER THAN WHAT I
HAVE IN THE GRIDS ATTM. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A DRY DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SOME PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MY MIN TEMPS DON/T QUITE
SUPPORT FROST ATTM...BUT IT/S SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
GFS BRINGS A WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTO THE MTNS BY LATE
IN THE DAY ON SAT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...IS STRONGER WITH THE
RIDGE AND KEEPS SATURDAY DRY. THE GFS IS QUITE WET SUN AND SUN NGHT
AS IT DIGS A SHORT WAVE ACROSS AR...GENERATING GOOD UPGLIDE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE DISORGANIZED
WITH THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT THE BASIC IDEA OF A CHANCE
OF RAIN SUN AND SUN NIGHT IS THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BKN TO OVC HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NE FROM
DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THE LATEST UPSTREAM SFC OBS
INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR ACROSS GA. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN H8-H750
MBS...IT APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUNRISE.
MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RAPID MOISTENING
WILL OCCUR WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 12-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. I WILL TIME MVFR CEILINGS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING. IFR CEILINGS AND
MVFR -RA AND BR SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BY MID DAY. ONCE THE LOW CEILINGS ARRIVE...IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIMITED...IF NOT GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AT KCLT...WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 100-120 DEGREES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD FAVOR 4-6
KTS WITH AN INCREASE TO 9-12 KTS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS MAY BACK TO
080 DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE. IT APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT RAPID
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 12-16Z ACROSS THE
TERMINAL. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR -RA AND BR SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BY MID DAY. ONCE THE LOW CEILINGS ARRIVE...IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LIMITED...IF NOT GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE TONIGHT. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE
TUE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. ADDITIONAL DRYING WILL OCCUR ON
WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS
OVER THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THU AND FRI.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-141015-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
604 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-141015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
604 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MCAVOY