Tornado Warning 29, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 171324
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
924 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

NCC021-089-149-171415-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-090617T1415Z/
HENDERSON NC-BUNCOMBE NC-POLK NC-
924 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL POLK...SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE AND NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON
COUNTIES...

AT 924 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-26 AT I-40...OR
NEAR ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BENT 
CREEK...BILTMORE FOREST...FAIRVIEW AND BAT CAVE

LAT...LON 3545 8228 3542 8227 3540 8226 3539 8222
      3540 8221 3538 8218 3534 8222 3551 8251
      3545 8269 3553 8277 3563 8268 3565 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1324Z 319DEG 22KT 3555 8264

$$

RWH

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 171345
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

NCC021-089-149-171354-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-090617T1415Z/
HENDERSON NC-BUNCOMBE NC-POLK NC-
945 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL POLK...SOUTHERN BUNCOMBE AND
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM PRODUCING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS 
WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...THE FIRST WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LAT...LON 3545 8228 3542 8227 3540 8226 3539 8222
      3540 8221 3538 8218 3534 8222 3551 8251
      3545 8269 3553 8277 3563 8268 3565 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1344Z 319DEG 22KT 3546 8254

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND MORE SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET. ONE WRINKLY IS THE WEAK SFC WEDGE
THAT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF OUR FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ZONES THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH MIX OUT THE WEDGE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TAKING ON A LIGHT SOUTHWEST COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGION.
I SUSPECT THAT THE FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN MOVE
BACKED THAT THE FLOW OVER ERN TN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD LLVL
MASS CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS...WHICH IS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY ORIGINATE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SPC SAID IN THEIR DAY
1 DISCUSSION...THESE MULTICELL OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD THEN
TRACK SOUTHEAST...POSING MAINLY A WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE FA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY JUST UPSTREAM OF THE REGION...VERY LARGE HAIL
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. WE/LL ADDRESS THIS IN THE WHO. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OVER THE REGION ROUGHLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM ASHEVILLE TO GREENVILLE... WHICH IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST CAPE IS LOCATED ON THE SREF LATER TODAY.

HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT AND MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING STORMS ARE FINISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WED...THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF
STATES...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW
FILLS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER UPPER LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY IN NC. GUIDANCE POPS ARE ALMOST
NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS MODEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN FOLLOWING DRYING FROM ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS EAST. THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN MOIST HOWEVER...AND
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ON FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND A LEE
TROUGH SETS UP WELL TO OUR EAST. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AGAIN...
BUT INSTABILITY IS EVEN GREATER...AND GUIDANCE POPS ARE GREATER THAN
THURSDAY. FORECAST POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE MODEL SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE...AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM JUST ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE HEAT
INDEX STAYS JUST BELOW 105 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTH AND EAST BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT WED...THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BY
SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING THE EAST COAST AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES...AS IT DOES WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE IN THE TN VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY THE MODELS THE MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND...AND
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. BY MONDAY THE GFS BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...A TREND THAT CARRIES OVER
INTO TUE. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THIS LOW AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST...KEEPING OUR AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

HPC FAVORED THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAD THE
BACKING OF SEVERAL OTHER MODELS. ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. ON SUNDAY THIS FRONT REACHES THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA THROUGH TUE. SCATTERED POPS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY...WITH DRYING FOLLOWING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY...TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AFFECTS THE
REGION. CIGS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO BETWEEN 006-010 FEET AS
THE LOW CLOUDS SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART. KCLT WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO WITH OUTFLOW FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO IT/S
SOUTH...AND THEN THE WINDS SHOULD TURN BACK OUT OF THE ENE.

LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT MOST SITES. THEY CERTAINLY
WILL OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE LONGER AT KCLT. I/VE
COMPROMISED THERE ARE HAVE THEM GOING SE BY LATE MORNING...SO THE
RUNWAYS WILL STILL NEED TO BE SWITCHED TOWARD LUNCH TIME.

BIG STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...STARTING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IT/S HARD TO SAY WHERE THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS...SO I HAVE ADDED
VCTS TO MOST SITES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH:

ASHEVILLE (KAVL): 92 SET IN 1933
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA (KGSP): 98 SET IN 1944
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA (KCLT): 102 SET IN 1944

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY
CLIMATE...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
543 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

NCZ048-170945-
MADISON-
450 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 545 AM
EDT...

AT 448 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOT
SPRINGS...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...WALNUT...SPRING CREEK...MARSHALL...MARS HILL...LUCK...
  HOT SPRINGS...FAUST...CANTO AND ALLENSTAND.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCPONAY THE STRONGER STORMS IN THIS AREA.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

NCZ048-049-053-171130-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-YANCEY-
635 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MADISON...NORTHERN YANCEY AND
NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 AM EDT...

AT 633 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENEVILLE TENNESSEE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITEROCK...WEAVERVILLE...WALNUT...SWISS...SPRING CREEK...
  RAMSEYTOWN...MARSHALL...MARS HILL...LUCK...LEICESTER...HOT
  SPRINGS...FAUST...CANTO...BURNSVILLE...BARNARDSVILLE AND
  ALLENSTAND.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

07