Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CREEP SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANAL AT 14Z STILL SHOWS THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN TN...S
THROUGH FAR WESTERN NC INTO GA. RUC/NAM STILL ADVERTISE THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS EASTWARD BY MIDDAY. CAD
ALSO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ERODE ALLOWING FOR MODEST INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE INTO THE 400-600J RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EXCEPT
APPROACHING 1000J THE NC PIEDMONT S OF CLT. WITH WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AS THE TRIGGER...EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY END FROM W TO E. EXPECT
THAT BY 3PM MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE AREA OF
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. HAVE TWEAKED MOST FIELDS FOR TODAY USING LATEST
LAV/RUC AND 12Z NAM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CAD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...SUPPLYING LIGHT NE SFC WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY...OVER THE MTNS THIS MORNING AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AS THE SHRA ENCOUNTER DEEPER WEDGED AIR MASS. LLVL
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SCT TSRA ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN NC...THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT TODAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NE THIS MORNING...THEN VEERING TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND MID DAY. THIS AFTERNOON...DEEPER MIXING MAY RESULT
IN GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE GA...NC MTNS...AND THE WESTERN
UPSTATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...DUE
TO CAD ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.

TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPLY CAA ACROSS
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF NW WINDS AND THE APPROACH OF A CLOSED
LOW SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK SHRA ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NC
MTNS. I WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND THE I-40
CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...AN UPPER LOW WL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WED AFTN AND OFF THE NC COAST WED NIGHT. I/VE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE AS NW FLOW WILL BANK MOISTURE UP
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS. THE NAM ALSO GENERATES A SMALL
AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER OUR NC PIEDMONT ZONES WED AFTN. FOR NOW I/VE
JUST GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR WED AFTN IN THIS AREA. MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IT POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST IN THE
STATE...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN OUR FA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST WED...NORTH WED NIGHT AND NE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WED AFTN AND EVENING OWNING TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MTNS.

LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING.
I HAVE WHAT SHOULD UNLOAD AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER A GOOD BIT OF
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PARTICULARLY IN THE NC ZONES. DESPITE A
FAIRLY CHILLY AIRMASS...THE CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FROST
FORMATION IN ALL BUT A FEW SHELTERED MTN VALLEYS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR ON THU WITH MAX TEMPS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE AIRMASS THU NIGHT LOOKS EVEN CHILLIER THAN WED
NIGHT...AND BY LATE NIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...IMPLYING CALM WINDS EVERYWHERE EXPECT
PERHAPS FOR OUR EASTERN MOST PIEDMONT ZONES.  MUCH OF THE NC MTNS
ARE LIKELY TO SEE FROST...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF FREEZE. FOR NOW
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LOOK JUST A HAIR TOO WARM...THOUGH IF I
EXPLICITLY TAKE THE COOP MOS...PARTS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT WOULD SEE TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST AS WELL. I/LL MENTION
ALL OF THIS IS THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE LATEST PRELIMINARY EXTENDED DISCUSSION
FROM HPC FAVORS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW THAT
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEY SITE RIDING OVER SRN CANADA ABOVE THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TEND
TO CAUSE IT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THE GFS BRINGS A LEAD SHORT WAVE
AND A DIMINISHING AREA OF RAIN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND AS FAR EAST AS
THE NC MTNS BY SAT AFTN. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AND THE ECMWF IS ALSO DRY ON SATURDAY.
THEREFORE I/VE REMOVED ANY POPS ON SAT AND TRIMMED CHANCE POPS BACK
TO THE NC MTNS SAT NIGHT...AND EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO FAST NOW. A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF PCPN STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAD THIS
MORNING...YIELDING PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. MOS GUIDANCE
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUB-MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE NC
MTNS BETWEEN 12-14Z...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM NE TO SW BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE SW WIND SHIFT. BY MID DAY...CEILINGS SHOULD MIX TO VFR
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 9-13 KTS...POSSIBLY GUSTY AT
KAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BECOMING NW AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MID EVENING. SCT TO BKN
MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS A CLOSED LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH.

AT KCLT...LATEST TCLT TDWR VELOCITY IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE CAD
BOUNDARY LIES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CAD...YIELDING PERIODS OF LIFR VISIBILITY WITH FOG AND DZ. SFC OBS
TRENDS INDICATE THAT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING PATCH OF RA. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE NC
PIEDMONT BETWEEN 15-19Z...RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO
SW BY MID MORNING. IN ADDITION...MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE
SW WIND SHIFT. BY MID AFTERNOON...CEILINGS SHOULD MIX TO VFR WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 8-10 KTS.. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER WITH CAA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING NW BY MID
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...A PASSING CLOSED LOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CEILING ACROSS NC
ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR
WEATHER WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNDER DEEP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LG/NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510-150930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-
527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-150930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-150930-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOW 30S
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A MIX OF FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED IF THESE LOW TEMPERATURES VERIFY AS THE
FROST...FREEZE SEASON BEGINS ON APRIL 15TH IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

GAZ028-029-SCZ011-141230-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-HART-
724 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN
HART AND WESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 AM EDT...

AT 723 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF ELBERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUCKERSVILLE BY 730 AM EDT.
  5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE RUSSELL BY 735 AM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
833 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 AM     HAIL             1 W ANTREVILLE          34.30N 82.56W
04/14/2009  E0.75 INCH       ABBEVILLE          SC   PUBLIC

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
852 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

GAZ010-017-SCZ001-141345-
HABERSHAM-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
852 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OCONEE...EASTERN
HABERSHAM AND EASTERN RABUN COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM EDT...

AT 851 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MOUNTAIN CITY TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LONG CREEK TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF TALLULAH FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PINE MOUNTAIN BY 905 AM EDT.
  WALHALLA BY 910 AM EDT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

GAZ028-029-SCZ010-011-141445-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-HART-
1009 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELBERT...SOUTHERN ANDERSON...
SOUTHERN HART AND WESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM EDT...

AT 1007 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HARTWELL TO COMER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HARTWELL BY 1015 AM EDT.
  NUBERG BY 1025 AM EDT.
  ELBERTON BY 1035 AM EDT.
  IVA BY 1045 AM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1132 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

GAZ029-SCZ010-011-141615-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-
1132 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT...SOUTHERN ANDERSON AND
WESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1132 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELBERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUCKERSVILLE BY 1150 AM EDT.
  LAKE RUSSELL BY 1155 AM EDT.
  LOWNDESVILLE BY 1205 PM EDT.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF SECESSION LAKE BY 1215 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1138 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONG CREEK              34.77N 83.26W
04/10/2009                   OCONEE             SC   POST OFFICE

            SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED ON POST OFFICE EMPLOYEES PROPERTY.

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N LONG CREEK          34.80N 83.26W
04/10/2009                   OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 76 ON WHITE WATER RAFTING CO
            PROPERTY.

&&

TBENTHAL