Severe Thunderstorm Warning 362, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA TONIGHT AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE AND SFC BOUNDARY ARE SE OF THE CWA...HEATING AND
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SCT
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVE...ESP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH COOLING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT WITH PTCHY FOG ACROS THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR AVG.

SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SE OF CWA FRI WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT.
AREA BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTN AND EXPECT SCT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE M-U80S ACROS THE PIEDMONT
WITH M70S-L80S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND SE U.S. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. FLOW AROUND
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION WILL PERSIST AT H65. WEAK TO MODERATE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS WITH ISO
COVERAGE EAST ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE WILL
YIELD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. BY 18Z...SCT SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW AMOUNTS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE TOP CONVERGENCE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS PATTERN I WILL FAVOR DIURNALLY TIMED CHC POPS
MON THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...FOG AND STRATUS WERE WIDESPREAD THU MORNING.
THE PATTERN REALLY WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT FRI MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE REGION HAS HAD AN EXTRA DAY TO DRY OUT AND THERE IS
SOME SIGN THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT. KAVL SHOULD SEE VLIFR CIGS AND FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AND
PROBABLY KHKY AS WELL. I KEPT MVFR FOG AND A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1KFT
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE UPSTATE. THERE WILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATUS...BUT NOT MANY. KCLT PROBABLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING STRATUS LATER AT NIGHT...BUT I/M NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
WITH A PREVAILING CIG AT THIS POINT.

SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS TMRW...WITH SPARSE COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE...MUCH LIKE TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE ON FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL BE NW EARLY
TMRW...DURING OUT OF THE SSE BY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT SCT MAINLY AFTN-EVE SHWRS/TSTMS AND MRNG CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS BOTH DAYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-140930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
520 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
GREATEST COVERAGE IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

NCZ053-065-505-507-508-132215-
BUNCOMBE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-HENDERSON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD
MOUNTAINS-
508 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF OLD FORT...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHIMNEY
  ROCK...OLD FORT...LAKE LURE AND BAT CAVE.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

NCZ506-508-132215-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
518 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DYSARTSVILLE...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOSTIC...
  THERMAL CITY...SPINDALE...RUTHERFORDTON...GLENWOOD...FOREST CITY...
  FERO AND DYSARTSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

NCZ501-502-132230-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
531 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM
EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DARBY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UPTON...
  PATTERSON...GLOBE...EDGEMONT...LENOIR...GAMEWELL...COLLETTSVILLE
  AND CAJAHS MOUNTAIN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

NCZ065-SCZ003-006-132230-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-
535 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND
SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 535 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLAT ROCK...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONES GAP
  STATE PARK...LAKE ROBINSON...NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...TUXEDO...FLAT
  ROCK...EAST FLAT ROCK...TRAVELERS REST...TIGERVILLE...MARIETTA AND
  CLEVELAND.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

SCZ001-140000-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
704 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE JOCASSEE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PICKENS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  KEOWEE...LAKE JOCASSEE...WALHALLA...SALEM AND MOUNTAIN REST.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
717 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

NCZ062-140015-
MACON-
717 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MACON COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM
EDT...

AT 717 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING WEST AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RAINBOW
  SPRINGS...OTTO AND FRANKLIN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07