Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY...THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THOUGH
WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
NEXT TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 1845Z...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA EXISTED ACROSS THE
NC MTNS AND EAST OF I-85. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE...AND A
PASSING POTENT S/W. MTN CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE STRUCTURED
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 19-21Z. THIS
BAND WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. 19-24Z...PIEDMONT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
INTO CLUSTERS...WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE MULTIPLE SVR HAIL AND WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AROUND MIDNIGHT...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. COVERAGE SHOULD
BECOME LIMITED TO ISO TO SCT ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY 9Z.
CLEARING DEBRIS CLOUDS...SATURATED SOIL...AND LIGHT WINDS MAY YIELD
PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A SFC TRIGGER
COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT H65 INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHRA AND TSRA. I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS OVER THE RIDGES WITH
LITTLE TO NO COVERAGE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED NORMALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...AS THE ERN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER DRYING IS INDICATED EARLY THU JUST BEHIND THE
WAVE DEPARTING TOWARD THE COAST. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE MCS TRACK
STEERING FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THE MODELS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON DEVELOPING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THU/THU NIGHT. PLUS...A NW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY EAST OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE DRIER AIR. POPS HAVE THUS BEEN LOWERED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN ALL BUT THE MOST UNSTABLE SRN PIEDMONT SECTIONS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER TO
THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...PUSHING THE MCS TRACK FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FORCING FRI WILL PROBABLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY REBOUNDING THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON BOTH MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO START THE
UPCOMING WEEK.  GUIDANCE HAS COME UP WITH TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL
PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED IN THE MODELS AND HAVE
DROPPED THE POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  BASED
ON GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PERIOD WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...WITH GREATER CLOUD
COVER...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES...STICKING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS HAS LIMITED THE AVAILABILITY OF THE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KGSP/KGMU/KAND. MAY NEED TO AMD NOT SKED IN THE
KAND AND KGMU TAFS IF PROBLEMS PERSISTS.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
S/W. TAFS CONTAIN A MENTION OF CB IN THE SKY GROUP THROUGH LATE
EVENING. MOST SITES SHOULD SEE A TSRA PASS NEAR THE TERMINAL...WILL
COVER WITH A TEMPO FROM 19-24Z. OVERNIGHT...CLEARING SKY
COVER...RECENT RAINFALL...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION
OF FOG...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS. FOG WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND.

AT KCLT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CLT METRO AREA
FROM 19Z THROUGH 3Z. A BAND OF TSRA COULD PASS ACROSS THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 21-24Z. ATTM...I WILL FORECAST GENERALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS
WITH SOME LIMITED VIS...AMDS WILL BE NECESSARY AS CONVECTION
APPROACHES. OVERNIGHT...CLEARING SKY COVER...RECENT RAINFALL...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG. FOG WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG OR HAZE COULD OCCUR EACH MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
550 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WITH
HAILSTONES THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER TODAY IN CASE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
137 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

GAZ010-NCZ062-051830-
MACON-RABUN-
137 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RABUN AND SOUTHERN MACON
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE BURTON...OR 11 MILES
WEST OF CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  BURTON...TIGER...SKY VALLEY...MOUNTAIN CITY...MOCCASIN CREEK STATE
  PARK...DILLARD...CLAYTON...SCALY AND OTTO.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

NCZ033-049-050-051845-
AVERY-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
141 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MITCHELL...NORTHERN
YANCEY AND WESTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAMSEYTOWN...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF ERWIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  RAMSEYTOWN...POPLAR...MINNEAPOLIS...BULADEAN...BANDANA AND
  BAKERSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

SCZ006-010-011-051845-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-
146 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ABBEVILLE...SOUTHERN
ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 146 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF IVA...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
ANDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SECESSION
  LAKE...BROADWAY LAKE...STARR...PRINCETON...IVA...HONEA PATH...DUE
  WEST...DONALDS...BELTON AND ANTREVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

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