Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1003 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE CAROLINA
COAST AND FLORIDA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER TO
START THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY STALL OUT OVER TENNESSEE
AND KENTUCKY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SINCE EARLY EVENING...VORT ENERGY AND LOCALIZED LLVL
CONVERGENCE/OUTFLOW INTERACTION HAS BEEN WORKING WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY ACRS THE NON-OVERTURNED ATMOSPHERE ACRS THE I-77
CORRIDOR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW HEAVY TSTMS.
EXPECTING THAT AS VORT ENERGY ROTATES DOWNSTREAM OVERNIGHT AND MEAN
DRYING NOTED ON THE WV LOOPS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
CWFA...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. OTHERWISE...MODEL
CROSSSECTIONS INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF LOW TO MID-LVL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO WORK EAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...ALONG COLD FRONT ACRS MID/ERN TENN PROGGED TO
DIMINISH.

ON THURSDAY...AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD INTO THE ERN GREAT
LAKES...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN...POSSIBLY NOT
MAKING A REAL PUSH THRU THE AREA UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1500 J/KG ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. ALSO...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE LONG-WAVE
TROF SUPPORTIVE OF UPWARD MOTION. SO I HAVE A CHC POP ALONG AND EAST
OF I-26...AND SLGT CHC WEST. THE NW NC PIEDMONT HAS HIGHEST CHC OF
TSTMS. DAY 2 SPC COMBINED SEVERE OUTLOOK DOES SHOW A 5% AREA
EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO CHARLOTTE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MTNS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S PIEDMONT).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE E ON THU EVENING. WILL HANG ONTO SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR E FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LINGERING SHWOERS/STOF SOME
LINGERING SHWOERS/STORF SOME
LINGERING SHWOERS/STORMS THU EVENING. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THU NIGHT AND
GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER FRI INTO SAT. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
TOP CONVECTION FRI/SAT AFTERNOONS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SAT AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND BECOMES S-SW WITH A BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUICK TO DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING SAT EVENING. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH ASSOCAIATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO STAY W OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT. BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS SCHEME USED THE WARMER GMOS NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS FRI/SAT
WHICH ARE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

T

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL
TRANSITION FROM A TROUGH IN THE E LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE DEEP S THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE MOUNTAINS
ON SUN...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOSE STEAM AND BE PUSHED NORTHWARD
ON MON AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON SUN. A PASSING SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MON THROUGH WED...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODERATE DEEP MOISTURE BAND AHEAD OF UPPER LVL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER AND MOVE NORTHEAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EASTERN FA THIS EVENING. WEAK WAA
FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL WEAK FORCING SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWER CVRG ISOLATED. BLYR MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK
POSSIBLY ALLOWING MVFR/IFR STRATOCU/STRATUS TO DEVELOP...BUT GIVEN
LIMITED MODEL SUPPORT...WILL KEEP CLOUD LAYER FEW-SCT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTM WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AT KCLT...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR SHOWER/TSTMS ENCROACHING
FROM THE SW...AND PLAN ON VCSH AT ISSUANCE TIME...BUT MAY NEED A
TEMPO -SHRA UNTIL ABOUT 01Z. OTHERWISE...AFTER SCATTERED SHOWER
THREAT DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR LVL LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSTM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON LOOK LOW ENUF TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSH THRU THE AREA THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE FROPA (ESPECIALLY KHKY AND KCLT).
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY...AND SCATTERED MTN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY. SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK/CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068-069-501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-240215-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
1007 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ036-037-057-070>072-082-SCZ009-014-240215-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-
CHESTER-
1007 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
743 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

NCZ501-502-230030-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
743 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM
EDT...

AT 743 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GAMEWELL...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LENOIR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...HUDSON...GAMEWELL...
  AND COLLETTSVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AS WELL.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
838 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

NCZ057-230115-
ROWAN-
838 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN ROWAN COUNTY THROUGH 915
PM EDT...

AT 836 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS WESTERN
ROWAN COUNTY...MAINLY FROM ENOCHVILLE TO JUST WEST OF CHINA
GROVE...TO NEAR CLEVELAND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. DEEP PONDING OF WATER
MAY DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

SCZ014-230215-
CHESTER-
928 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH
1015 PM EDT...

AT 928 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BLACKSTOCK TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINNSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GREAT FALLS
  RESERVOIR...FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR...RICHBURG...GREAT FALLS...FORT
  LAWN...CORNWELL AND BLACKSTOCK.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

NCZ072-230215-
CABARRUS-
935 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CABARRUS COUNTY
THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 933 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KANNAPOLIS...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CONCORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE REDEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KANNAPOLIS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1013 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

NCZ071-072-SCZ009-230315-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
1013 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK...MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHWESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

AT 1011 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SERIES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM ROCK HILL...TO CENTER
CITY CHARLOTTE...TO NEAR THE LOWES MOTOR SPEEDWAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST 15 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

HG