Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY MONDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE DEEP UPPER LOW PRES CENTER MOVES EAST THROUGH KY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 21Z TO 00Z. MEANWHILE...A 130 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS
EVENING...PRODUCING STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN UPPER FORCING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST BETWEEN ABOUT 8 PM AND 1 AM.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK SHARPLY TOWARD 21Z...STRONGLY
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL HELICITY. A TONGUE OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
COINCIDENT WITH THE BETTER SHEAR AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE SRN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING TO GREATLY ENHANCE THE ORGANIZED
SEVERE TSTM THREAT. A WATCH IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

850 MB FLOW WILL TURN QUICKLY WESTERLY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
FROPA...PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE DRYING EAST OF THE MTNS. NORTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE COLD ADVECTION FLOW. PROFILES STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PTYPE TO REMAIN LIQUID. CONTINUED CLEARING THROUGHOUT IS
EXPECTED SAT AFTN. A STRONG GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID
70S IN THE SE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST SAT NIGHT WHILE THE LAST LOBE OF S/W ENERGY CROSSES THE
CWFA TO THE EAST. THE GFS AND THE NAM BOTH AGREE ON THIS WAVE
LEAVING THE AREA BY 06Z THUS ENDING ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE 12Z GFS DOES HANG ONTO H85 MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH
DOESNT MAKE MUCH SENSE CONSIDERING ITS BRINGING IT ACROSS THE MTNS
IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INTO AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN DRIER THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH
COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY WITH THE EVEN DRIER 12Z NAM. SO...WONT
EXPECT MUCH CLOUD COVER NOR ANY UPSLOPE PRECIP AS DEPICTED BY THE
GFS. THE MODELS DO AGREE ON DEVELOPING A FAIRLY STRONG INSITU WEDGE
LATE SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING IT THROUGH MON. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH
WITH THE STRENGTH...BUT IN EITHER CASE THE EXPECTED WX SHOULD BE
SIMILAR. THIS SITUATION HAS LED TO PUSHING BACK CHC POPS SUN NIGHT
UNTIL AFTER 06Z MON FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWFA. BASICALLY A DRY
WEDGE SETTING UP SUN...BECOMING A MOIST WEDGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LOW WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT. H5 PVU/S ARE LESS THAN 1 AND H3 DIV REMAINS NW OF THE
MTNS. ALSO...ANOTHER SIGN OF THE CLASSICAL GSP SLIT WILL BE
INCREASED INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
KGSP INDICATE LI/S WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 THROUGH MON AND THE NAM
KEEPS ALL THE CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER AL AND SRN GA THROUGH 00Z TUE.
SO SUFFICE TO SAY...THE CHC THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS
MON. STILL EXPECT LIKELY POPS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEDGE
CONTINUES TO HOLD AND PROVIDE VERY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
WIDESPREAD -RA. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
SUN...AND FEW ABOVE NORMAL MON AS OVC SKIES DEVELOP. HIGHS SHOULD
ALSO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUN...WITH GOOD INSOLATION OFFSETTING AN
INCREASING NE/LY FLOW AND WEAK CAA. HIGHS FOR MON WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS MOIST WEDGE SETS UP EARLY AND PERSISTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...THE EXT RANGE BEGINS WITH STABLE WEDGE
REMAINING IN CONTROL...HOWEVER UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH MON NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUE. THE WEDGE SHOULD BREAKDOWN
BY 12Z AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. STILL DONT SEE MUCH
UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT. VORTICITY LOOKS TO REMAIN STREAMLINED
WITH UPPER LOW AND THE STRONGEST FORCING CROSSES THE LOWER OH
VALLEY. HARD TO JUDGE THE AMOUNT OF LLVL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
TUE AS THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN FROM THE SW. SOME EVIDENCE EXISTS FOR
TS POTENTIAL WITH LI/S DROPPING INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE SHOWING UP ON THE SOUNDINGS. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER POSSIBLE TRIPLE POINT LOW CROSSING
THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT BTW 18Z AND 00Z. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL
THE PRECIP NON/CONVECTIVE AS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
TIMING OF THE WEDGE BREAKDOWN AND INCREASING INSTABILITY POTENTIAL.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THO...AND BY 06Z THE FRONT SHOULD
BE NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER WEAK WEDGE BUILDS IN THU AND REMAINS THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER SYS PUSHING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS MORE INLINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS GIVE THE MED RANGE
FCST BETTER CONFIDENCE AS THE GFS WAS PRETTY MUCH THE ONLY MODEL
HANGING ONTO THE FASTER SOLN. SOLID CHC POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR FRI
LINGERING INTO SAT AS THE AXIS OF THE SFC TROF SHOWS GOOD CONTIGUITY
BTW THE OP MODELS. WONT EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.
THE LLVL WIND FIELD REALLY DOESNT GET A S/LY COMPONENT UNTIL LATE
FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...BEFORE THAT A WEAKENING WEDGE WIND
FIELD...NE/LY TO SE/LY IS EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WED THROUGH
FRI WILL HELP MAX TEMPS REACH AROUND 70 F NON/MTNS...MID 60S
MTNS...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THU AND FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG AND NW OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON IN A REGION OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE FROM KAND TO KGSP...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...WITH GENERALLY PERSISTENT MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
HIGHEST RISK OF ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING AND SEVERE GUSTS...WILL BE FROM
00Z WEST TO 05Z EAST WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AT KCLT...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW...WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY 00Z THIS EVENING. SSW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z
LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SLOW TO SCATTER THROUGH DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1133 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

GAZ029-SCZ006-007-010>013-019-101645-
ELBERT-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...GREENWOOD
1133 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE THROUGH 1230 PM...

AT 1127 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY
TO NORTHERN LAURENS AND SOUTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTY. THROUGH 1230
PM...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF I-85 AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTHERN SPARTANBURG AND UNION COUNTIES. ISOLATED
EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1242 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-101845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
1242 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 1239 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THROUGH 2 PM...ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONGER
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     HAIL             4 NW ANDERSON           34.56N 82.70W
04/10/2009  E0.75 INCH       ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 3/4 INCH HAIL ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH OF THE
            ANDERSON COUNTY AIRPORT.

0115 PM     HAIL             5 NW ANDERSON           34.57N 82.71W
04/10/2009  E0.75 INCH       ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 3/4 INCH HAIL ON CLEMSON BLVD...ABOUT 1
            MILE SOUTH OF I-85.

&&

BSH

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