Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KGSP RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EXTREME NW
NC WILL DRIFT DOWN INTO THE AREA NORTH OF I-40 DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE SOUTHWARD. HAVE
BUMPED UP THE POP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE TO LIKELY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS...WHILE TEMPORARILY CUTTING BACK/DELAYING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. STILL DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO
WORK OUT THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE ONE HAND...MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WE SHOULD HAVE AN MCV
MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ON THE OTHER
HAND...LAPSE RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...AS ARE CAPES...AND 500MB TEMPS
ARE ON THE WARM SIDE. THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A SLGT RISK...SO WE
WILL THINK WORST CASE AND PLAN ON SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATER IN THE DAY...BUT LEAVE POP ALONE AND NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE HWO. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD.

AS FOR TONIGHT...IT HAD BEEN LOOKING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS IF WE
WOULD EXPERIENCE 10 TO 15 KTS OF ELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS DISRUPTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...ITS HARD
TO GET AN IDEA OF WHAT THE LLVL FLOW WILL LOOK LIKE. HOWEVER...IT/S
LOOKING AS IF THE FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...POSSIBLY TOO LIGHT TO
MAINTAIN MUCH DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND...MOS
POPS ACTUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND IT WON/T TAKE A LOT OF
FORCING WITH DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 POOLED EAST OF THE MTNS. I
STILL THINK WE WILL SEE GOOD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NC AND NRN SC ZONES. AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME HYDRO
PROBLEMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT MON...THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AN IMPULSE RIDING
THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE OH VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SURFACE FRONT WILL
REMAIN JUST OT OUR SOUTH...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER OUR AREA...AND AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
LIKELY POPS WILL BE CARRIED ALONG THE NC BLUE RIDGE TUE...WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT PUSHES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN HOWEVER...WITH EASTERLY
FLOW SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCE POPS. BY WED THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE COAST LATE WED WILL BACK SURFACE WINDS TO NORTHERLY...AND
REDUCE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT. CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
TAKES PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT MON...REASONABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON THU...WHICH
PUSHES OUT TO SEA FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS EAST FORM THE GULF STATES.
ON SAT THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW REACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ALMOST TO FL.

THU FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER OUR
AREA...WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS IN WITH OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS...WITH POPS IN REST OF THE AREA AT SLIGHT CHANCE. ON FRI A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA...PUTTING US IN A SUMMERTIME AIR
MASS...WHICH PERSISTS INTO SAT. POPS FALL OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA FORM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND
FOLLOWED BY DRYING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL THU TO
ABOVE NORMAL FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE REPLACES THE TROUGH...THEN FALL
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HEIGHT FALLS SAT...REMAINING NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW COUNTERS WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...THE WIND FORECAST IS STILL DIFFICULT FOR TODAY.
AT LEAST SPEEDS SHOULD BE WELL UNDER 10 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. A
WEAK TROUGH HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH KCLT...TURNING THEIR WINDS OUT OF
THE NW. THE WINDS SHOULD GO BACK OUT OF THE SE AT KCLT BY 1300 UTC.
WINDS OVER THE UPSTATE WILL BE NE AT KGMU AND KGSP...BUT MAY STAY
OUT OF THE SW AT KAND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY TURN OUT OF THE NE AT
ALL TAF SITES TNGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL SHOULD SHOULD JUST
BE CALM.

AREAS OF MORNING MVFR FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 1300 UTC. LIFR CIGS
HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR TO THE E OF KCLT...BUT THE NAM AND RUC
LLVL WIND FORECASTS IMPLY THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL STAY EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD. OTHERWISE...A VFR CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. CIGS WILL LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AT THE NC TAF
SITES TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH INTO SC.

VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR LATER TODAY. SPC HAS PUT
THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTN AND THEN ROLL EAST FROM THERE.

OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS PSBL IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUE/WED...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING.
CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY THU-FRI AS HOT
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
537 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1220 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S UNION               34.65N 81.62W
06/13/2009                   UNION              SC   PUBLIC

            TWO TREES AND LIMBS DOWN AT SHARP BEND IN DEEP WATER
            ROAD.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1239 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHINA GROVE             35.57N 80.58W
06/13/2009                   ROWAN              NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN INCLUDING WALNUT STREET AND 2ND AVE.
            ONE AUTO ACCIDENT WITH NO INJURIES DUE TO TREE ACROSS
            ROAD.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             8 ENE UNION             34.77N 81.49W
06/12/2009  E0.75 INCH       UNION              SC   UTILITY COMPANY

            PENNY SIZE HAIL HIGHWAY 49 AND LASTED FOR ONE MINUTE.

&&

TBENTHAL