Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROUND THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE TO START THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AS NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES COOL...I WILL REDUCE POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AFTER 6Z. PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR AREAS THE RECEIVED RAINFALL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...I WILL FAVOR THE MTN
VALLEY FOR A MENTION OF FOG. OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECASTS LOOKS
GOOD. I WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HRLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER WNW FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT THE
WEAK AND NEBULOUS LLVL FLOW CONTINUES. THE NAM INDICATES WARMING
ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING IMPULSE...AND COMBINED
WITH NEGLIGIBLE LLVL FORCING/CONVERGENCE...FEEL THAT JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON POP IS WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
THE BROAD AND FLAT RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD. PRE/EXISTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN THIS UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY...AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
JET MAXIMA TO THE N MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND MAX TEMPS SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL REMAIN HEALTHY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 35 TO 40
KT OF FLOW EXPECTED AT 500 MB. 850 MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT APPROCHING WAVE MONDAY. TO FURTHER ENHANCE HELICITY. A
SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL THUS CONTINUE DESPITE THE REDUCED
STABILITY.

RIDGING BUILDING OVER TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A DEEPER
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ON MON...BUT CHC POPS
FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE UPSLOPE ZONE NEAR THE
EASTERN ESCARPMENT. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINING WITH
STOUT WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS COULD LEAD TO ANCHORING
CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE GFS CONTINUES PREVIOUS TRENDS OF OVERDOING MCS CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...IN A NOD TO THE ECM...WILL MAINTAIN CHC COVERAGE
WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND MTNS FOR DEVELOPING MIDDAY
OH VALLEY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXT PERIOD. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BTW THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THE TREATMENT OF THE PFJ AND HOW
MUCH ENERGY WILL BE ALLOWED SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY
OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS LOWERS H5 HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MORESO THAN THE ECMWF...THUS RETROGRADING THE
NRN GOM HIGH AND ALLOWING A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA
SAT. THIS IDEA IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE GGEM NOR NOGAPS...SO THE MORE
RIDGEY ECMWF WILL BE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

STILL THINK A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE CWFA THROUGH THE
EXT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND NO AIRMASS CHANGE OR
MIX WILL BE EXPECTED BEHIND THEM. THE MODELS DO AGREE PRETTY GOOD
WITH THE LOWER LATITUDES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUB TROPICAL
HIGH. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PREVENT LITTLE IF ANY GOM
MOISTURE FLUX...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
WITH HIGH ENOUGH TD/S FOR AFTERNOON TS ACTIVITY. POPS WILL FOLLOW A
NORMAL NOCTURNAL CLIMO CURVE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRIGGERS
AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP POPS BELOW SUMMERTIME NORMALS. ONLY A CHANCE POP IS KEPT FRI
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES AS THE UPPER AXIS SHIFTS
EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLY ALLOWS ENHANCING UPPER ENERGY TO
COMBINE WITH A WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE COMPONENT. SAT COULD BE A A BIT
MORE ACTIVE AS H5 HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BECOME WEAKLY CYCLONIC...YET
POPS WILL BE LEFT AT LOW END CHANCE THAT FAR OUT.

TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING NORMAL LEVELS AS SKY COVER
WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...MOSTLY ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND PRETTY MUCH MOSTLY CLOUDY NON/MTN. THE WARMEST DAY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE FRI WITH DEEP LAYERED AND STRONG ADIABATIC WARMING
ANTICIPATED HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE L90S NON/MTNS...AND MID TO U80S
MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. NEARLY ALL THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT
KCLT...RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL USE PERSISTENCE AND
FORECAST FOG AT THE SITES THAT OBSERVED FOG THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...I WILL INDICATE A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS. MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A LIGHT NORTH WIND
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. SCT CU WILL LIKELY FORM BY MID
DAY...CHCS FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO MENTION.

AT KCLT...AT 2320Z...THE KCLT TERMINAL HAS REMAINED DRY. AN ISOLATED
TSRA WAS LOCATED NEAR KEHO AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST MOTION
WILL CARRY THE ACTIVITY JUST SOUTH OF KCLT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND ANY FUTURE CELLS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS AT KCLT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.
MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. SCT CU WILL LIKELY FORM BY MID
DAY...CHCS FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO MENTION.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/PERHAPS CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TUESDAY...WITH A DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED/CSH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
313 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES AND SMALL AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
RESULT...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE. ANOTHER THREAT THAT
MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD MOVE
SLOWLY...OR BECOME ANCHORED IN PLACE...AND PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
708 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

NCZ068-140015-
CLEVELAND-
708 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY
THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 707 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF POLKVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHELBY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SHELBY...
  PATTERSON SPRINGS...MOORESBORO...LAWNDALE...LATTIMORE...
  KINGSTOWN...EARL AND BOILING SPRINGS NC.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

NCZ035-036-140130-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
901 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER AND
NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

AT 900 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF STONY POINT...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF STATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  TURNERSBURG...TROUTMAN...STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...SCOTTS...LOVE
  VALLEY AND HIDDENITE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
930 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

NCZ036-037-057-140215-
DAVIE-IREDELL-ROWAN-
930 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DAVIE...ROWAN AND SOUTHERN
IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 927 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ADVANCE TO
STATESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HIGH ROCK
  LAKE...WOODLEAF...TROUTMAN...STATESVILLE...SPENCER...SALISBURY...
  MOUNT ULLA...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...GRANITE QUARRY...FORK
  CHURCH...FAITH...CRAVEN...COOLEEMEE...CLEVELAND...CHINA GROVE AND
  ADVANCE.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
948 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

NCZ036-056-069-502-504-140230-
CATAWBA-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-IREDELL-LINCOLN-
948 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CATAWBA...EASTERN BURKE...
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN IREDELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

AT 947 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE TO LONGVIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOOKOUT
  SHOALS LAKE...LAKE NORMAN...TERRELL...ST. STEPHENS...RHODHISS...
  NEWTON...MAIDEN...LONGVIEW...ICARD...HILDEBRAN...HICKORY...
  DENVER...CONOVER...CONNELLY SPRINGS...CLAREMONT AND CATAWBA.

PEA SIZE HAIL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

RB