Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK AND PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SVR TSTM WATCH 376 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AND IT IS OBVIOUSLY
IN GOOD SHAPE AS NEARLY SOLID DEEP CONVECTIVE LINE IS POISED TO
ENTER THE WESTERN NC MTNS AHEAD OF MCV. SCATTERED TSTMS OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LINE HAVE ALSO RECENTLY INITIATED WITHIN MODERATE CAPE.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING AFD...ENHANCED FLOW/LIFT PROVIDED BY
AFOREMENTIONED MCV TO AID IN LEWP/BOW DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE. DESPITE HIGHER WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...
SOME LARGE HAIL IS PROBABLE AS WELL. IN ALL PROBABILITY...AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF 376 SHOULD BE NEEDED...AND PERHAPS
WILL BE COORDINATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD...A PERIOD
OF JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY INTO THE NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF DEEP CONVECTIVE LINE...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
STILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS...IF NOT A TSTM...TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ACRS THE WESTERN MTNS. FLOW THOUGH A DEEP LAYER...IS MORE WESTERLY/
ZONAL ON FRIDAY...WITH THE FA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH
OF SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT. WITH ANY DEEPER
FORCING FEATURES LOOKING MORE SUBTLE...WILL TIME TSTM CHANCES
DIURNALLY AND FCST A SHOTGUN CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A FLAT HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER
TX...WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN WNW FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY ON SATURDAY...WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY FIRED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST.

THE FRONT MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY. PROFILES LOOK JUST A LITTLE DRIER ON THE NAM WITH MORE
NORTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...BUT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
HEALTHY ONCE AGAIN WITH SREF CAPE PROBABILITIES OF 1000 J/KG OR
BETTER EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS FEATURES STRONG LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...TRACKING EASTWARD INTO
THE NRN TIER ON MONDAY. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. OTHERWISE...GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED DAYTIME COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A
BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER IN THE AREA WITH LITTLE DRYING OF
SFC DEWPOINTS. CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO REQUIRE CHC
POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT E
TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GFS
FEATURES VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN FAR SW LOCATIONS. IF A WEAK MID
LEVEL CAP DEVELOPS EACH AFTN ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING
700 MB RIDGE...CONVECTION COULD BE EXPLOSIVELY RELEASED AT PEAK
HEATING. HOWEVER...THE ECM SOLUTION IS FAVORED AND IT IS LESS
UNSTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DIURNAL CHC TO
SLIGHT CHC COVERAGE TUE THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ROUND OF ROBUST TSTMS IS LOOKING PROBABLE AT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS MODERATELY FORCED LINE MAKES
IT WAY EAST ACRS THE FA. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL CARRY CB/VCTS
ALL ALL LOCATIONS AND AMEND WITH TEMPO TSRA AND GUSTS WHEN TIMING
OF EFFECTS CAN BE EXECUTED WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING JUST
DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPING MVFR BR AND SCT STRATUS.

AT KCLT...WILL TIME VCTS FOR A BROAD AREA OF TIME THIS EVENING...
BASED ON NAM TIMEHEIGHT FCST OF OMEGA/DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM.
LLVL WEAK WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LESS OF THE CHANCE
OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR/CIG RESTRICTIONS THAN THIS MORNING...
SO JUST THREW IN A TEMPO VFR BR AND SCT STRATUS.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/PERHAPS CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1223 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-503>510-
SCZ001>007-010>012-019-121630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
1223 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501-502-SCZ008-009-013-014-121630-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
1223 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1209 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SSE MONROE            34.88N 80.49W
06/10/2009                   UNION              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON STACK ROAD ANOTHER ON SANDY RIDGE ROAD.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 NE HENDERSONVILLE    35.45N 82.30W
06/10/2009                   HENDERSON          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN NEAR EDNEYVILLE ON SLICK ROCK RD AND UP TO
            SUGAR LOAF MTN.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
118 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNTAIN HOME           35.37N 82.50W
06/10/2009                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTS A FEW TREES DOWN.

0512 PM     HAIL             MILLS RIVER             35.39N 82.57W
06/10/2009  E1.75 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY EMPLOYEES REPORTED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED
            OCCURRED FROM NEAR MILLS RIVER TO MOUNTAIN HOME.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             1 SE BLACK MOUNTAIN     35.60N 82.32W
06/09/2009  E0.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   PUBLIC

            A PUBLIC REPORT OF PENNY SIZED HAIL AND VERY LITTLE WIND.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRVIEW                35.14N 80.54W
06/10/2009                   UNION              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

&&

TBENTHAL

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