Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
840 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THIS EVENING AND CROSS
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00 UTC...A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM ONTARIO TO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT STRETCHED DOWN THE
SPIN OF THE MOUNTAINS...THEN LOOPED AROUND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BORDER REGION OF OUR AREA IN THE SC
PIEDMONT. RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ECHOES MOVING EAST ALONG
INTERSTATE 20...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG THE NC AND SC
BORDER...AND MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG INTERSTATE 40. WITH MORE
CONVECTION ABOUT TO MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM GA TO THE SC
MIDLANDS...THE TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST GA
AND SC COUNTIES.

DESPITE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...WEDGE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY WELL BE WHAT IT
TAKES TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER...KEEPING CLOUD COVER ELEVATED UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 00Z COMPARED FAVORABLY WITH
GUIDANCE...AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WILL MADE TO THE MINIMUMS.
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH VEERING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORTING UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER...AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE
VALLEY FLOORS BY DAWN. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT TAKES EFFECT
ALONG THE TN BORDER AT MIDNIGHT WILL REMAIN...AS WILL THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NC AND GA MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY COME UP
RATHER GRADUALLY.

WITHIN THE WELL MIXED POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ON THURSDAY...AS
THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS...MID LVL WIND MAX MOVES ON OUT...
LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
THREATEN THE TENN BORDER COUNTIES WILL LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL...
BUT STILL ADVISORY LVL ACCUMULATIONS. NC/GA MTN WIND ADVISORY
TO LAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NC
MTNS ALONG TN BORDER THU NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE. SYSTEM WILL
PUSH NE OF AREA FRI WITH DRY...HIGH PRESURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W.
AFTER A COOL START IN THE 20S...WITH A FEW TEENS MTNS...TEMPS WILL
WARM TO AROUND 50 S PIEDMONT...M40S N...WITH M30-L40S MTNS.

HIGH MOVES E FRI NIGHT AND OFFSHORE SAT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVG INTO THE S GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOC COLD FRONT APPROACHING CWA
FROM THE W. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWING SYSTEM DOWN SO BACKED
OFF CHANCE POPS UNTIL SAT AFTN OVER NC MTNS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
WEST OF MTNS INTO FOOTHILLS. TEMPS WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG
SO ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN.

H5 SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS OH VALLEY SAT NIGHT AND HEADS TOWARD CWA.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TURN TO SNOW OVER MTNS SAT EVE...THEN AS THICKNESS
DROPS AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL IN GOOD CAA...CHANCE RAIN WILL TURN
TO CHANCE SNOW ACROSS CWA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MRNG. CHANCE SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER NC MTNS IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE...WHILE TURNING
TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE AFTN. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE L-M40S PIEDMONT...30S MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...LEAVING US WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR N
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED EVEN
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. INSTEAD...A LARGE DRY HIGH PRESSURE
AREA WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND THAT TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS AND PREVIOUS ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE NEW ECMWF APPEARS RADICALLY
DIFFERENT...CASTING DOUBT ON THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
THE FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE HPC SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING...THAT COULD RESULT
IN A MINOR PTYPE PROBLEM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF PRECIP BEGINS
EARLY ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...HOWEVER...SO EXPECT CHANGES
OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVING EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BY LATE
TONIGHT A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BREAK
UP THE CEILING AND BRING UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. AROUND DAYBREAK
THE WINDS VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BECOME RATHER GUSTY...REAMING
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

ELSEWHERE...IMPROVEMENT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
EVENING IN A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL START DOWNSLOPE DRYING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE UP VALLEY FLOW AT KAVL BRINGS CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM OF KAVL NEAR THE
TN BORDER. WINDS BECOME WEST NORTHWEST THURSDAY...EXCEPT NORTHWEST
AT KAVL...AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY...WITH CEILINGS BREAKING UP AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT. FRIDAY
WILL BE RATHER QUITE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY WILL SEE DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONT..WITH GUSTY WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ018-
     026-028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>052.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...PAT
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

GAZ018-026-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-SCZ001>010-
012>014-192045-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
337 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-192045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
337 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-192045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
337 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ028-029-SCZ011-019-192045-
HART-ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
337 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 25 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
611 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

NCZ033-182345-
AVERY-
611 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM EST...

AT 608 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF PEORIA...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BEECH MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE OVER THE FLAT SPRINGS COMMUNITY AROUND 615 TO
620 PM EST.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 12 NNW ASHEVILLE        35.73N 82.63W
02/18/2009                   BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            APPROXIMATLEY 35 TREES DOWN DURING 45 MINUTE PERIOD.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

SCZ011>013-019-190115-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-UNION-
711 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENWOOD...SOUTHEASTERN UNION...
SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHERN LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM
EST...

AT 708 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
LAURENS TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CALHOUN FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 60
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  GREENWOOD...WATERLOO...WARE SHOALS...VERDERY...NINETY SIX...
  LAURENS...JOANNA...CROSS HILL...CLINTON...CALHOUN FALLS AND
  ABBEVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
837 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

SCZ001>007-010-012-190230-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-LAURENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
837 PM EST WED FEB 18 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...NORTHERN
ANDERSON...NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...OCONEE...PICKENS AND SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EST...

AT 832 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF TRAVELERS REST...OR 9 MILES NORTH
OF GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS STORM WAS PART OF A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 10 PM. SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

MOORE

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