Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STATES AND TRACK EAST
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BRING A GOOD SUPPLY OF
MOISTURE TO OUR REGION UNTIL THE LOW MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1430...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATED MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
WITH A SMALL REGION OF RIDGETOP CU OVER EXTREME WESTERN NC. OBSERVED
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WITH A INVERSION BETWEEN
550-600 MBS. THE OBSERVED PROFILE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION
THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIMITED TO SHALLOW CU.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS AROUND
60 SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE CWA. WEAK
FORCING AND BROAD SOUTH FLOW WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA. IN FACT...MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE SCT
COVERAGE DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I WILL KEEP
A MENTION OF SCT MTN CONVECTION WITH SCHC ACROSS THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS. BASED ON WEAK WIND PROFILES...PULSE STORMS SHOULD NOT
TREK EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODERATE CAPE
VALUES...WBZ AROUND 9 KT...AND LLVL DRY AIR COULD SUPPORT SVR TSRA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS...AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE TENN/OH VALLEY. THE NAM
FEATURES A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WED
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ITS 3000+ CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY OVERBLOWN (AS
USUAL)...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL
BE MAINTAINED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION REACH A NADIR ON THURSDAY...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE WARM-CORE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE
GFS MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
QUITE AS STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE...THE NAM DEPICTS SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THIS COULD HAVE NEGATIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIP CHANCES
THU AFTERNOON...AS CONVERGENCE IS DIMINISHED ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE LOW. FOR NOW...WE WILL STAY THE COURSE
AND CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SOLID
CHANCES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH WHAT/S LEFT OF THE WARM CORE LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE UP
THE COAST...A PORTION OF THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WHILE
ANOTHER PORTION ATTEMPTS TO BACK DOOR INTO THE CWFA. THIS RESULTS IN
A CAD-LIKE CONFIGURATION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...
CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE BACKING OFF ON PUSHING THE FRONT TO THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS
CASTING SOME DOUBT ON OUR DRY WEEKEND FORECAST...AS SUCH A SCENARIO
WOULD SUGGEST DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST EC IS STICKING TO ITS GUNS AND AGREES WELL WITH
OUR CURRENT FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
WEEKEND FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE RIDGETOP CU ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...FEW CU HAS ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY. LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS A FEW SHRA AND ISO TSRA WITHIN THE
CU FIELD OVER THE SMOKIES. MOTION WILL REMAIN SLOW AND COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED TO THE MTNS. CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. I WILL KEEP TAFS DRY...BUT WILL MENTION A
VCTS AT KAVL BETWEEN 21-03Z. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KAVL. WEDNESDAY...CHCS FOR CONVECTION
APPEAR A LITTLE HIGHER...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. I WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW TO SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT.

AT KCLT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM 170-200 DEGREES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LIGHT FOG OR HAZE MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
UNTIL SUNRISE. FEW TO SCT CU BASES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 050-060
KFT.

OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
REMAIN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP
FROM TIME TO TIME LATE THIS WEEK. LIMITATIONS TO VIS AND CIGS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AT NIGHT...LIMITATIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
605 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
031015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
605 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

NCZ059-062-063-021845-
MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MACON AND SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF LAKE THORPE...OR 16 MILES EAST OF
FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  THORPE...WOLF MOUNTAIN...TUCKASEGEE AND CASHIERS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

NED