Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK HIGH. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL REACH
THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH OVER
2000 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 85 IN NC. POPS WILL BE RAISED TO THE
UPPER END OF CHANCE ALONG INTERSTATE 77...AND RAISED NEARLY AS HIGH
ALONG INTERSTATE 40...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT IN NE
GA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SC. CHANCE POPS WILL ALSO BE
MAINTAINED ALONG THE TN BORDER...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT. BY EVENING THE FRONT WILL
LEAVING THE AREA...AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT... WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE FORMER...AND SCATTERED IN
THE LATER. BY LATE EVENING DRYING WILL OCCUR. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO MORE SPRING LIKE VALUES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE QUITE WAR...IN A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE NC ZONES BEFORE
MAX HEATING...BUT THE SREF IS SHOWING THAT CAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
RISE TO 1000 J/KG OR BETTER OVER THE SC AND GA ZONES IN THE AFTN.
FOR NOW I/VE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS
SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK AND STORMS SHOULD BE VERY DISORGANIZED...AND
WIDELY SCATTERED. HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO NEAR 90 OVER PARTS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND VERY WARN LLVL
THICKNESSES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NGHT. DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND SOME MTN VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE U40S. ON MONDAY THE SFC HIGH STARTS TO
MOVE OFF SHORE AS WEAK RETURN FLOW ENSUES. THE MODELS POOL DEWPOINTS
ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT...AND I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS IN THESE AREAS IN THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
WARM BUT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUN OWING TO THE WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM FRIDAY...A REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE US WEST
COAST AND COASTAL WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...THE FLOW OVER THE SE CONUS
WILL BE WEAK. A SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
ATLANTIC...AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH ON TUE IN THE WEAK
RETURN FLOW. I/M CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FA AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH...BUT THERE IS ALMOST NO FORCING. MY GUESS
IT THAT THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS WILL SEE MOST OF THE CONVECTION ON
TUE. BY WED NIGHT THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE MTNS AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD LLVL
CONVERGENCE WL RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON WED/WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FA ON THU BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRI. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA ON THU WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. PCPN WL FINALLY START TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON
FRI. TIMING ON DAY 7 IS ALWAYS AS ISSUE...BUT IF THE PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...IT/S POSSIBLE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER OR EVEN CUMULONIMBUS IN THE
TAFS...EXCEPT AT KHKY WHERE ACTIVITY IS ONGOING. WINDS WILL VEER
FORM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO THE
NORTH BY LATE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. UNLESS A THUNDERSTORM PASSES
CLOSE TO AN AIRFIELD...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS DRY AIR
MOVES IN TONIGHT.

AT KCLT...VFR IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
IS LIMITED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCE...BUT CUMULONIMBUS WILL BE CARRIED. WINDS WILL VEER FROM
WEST SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...TO NORTH LATE THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PRECLUDE
FOG SATURDAY MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST.

OUTLOOK...AFTER A DRY SATURDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE
OF MORNING FOG AND STRATUS RESTRICTIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-301930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-301930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-CHESTER-
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...AND SMALL
AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MCAVOY

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1124 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHARON                  34.95N 81.34W
05/28/2009                   YORK               SC   POST OFFICE

            ONE TREE DOWN. NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN ACROSS TOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE THICKETTY         34.99N 81.71W
05/28/2009                   CHEROKEE           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            THREE TREES DOWN ON GOUCHER CREEK ROAD.

&&

LGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE PAULINE            34.82N 81.86W
05/28/2009                   SPARTANBURG        SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MEDIUM TO LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 215. OTHERS
            HWY 150 NEAR GLENN SPRINGS.

&&

LUKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
202 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

NCZ035-036-291830-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
202 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER AND
NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF WINDY GAP...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILKESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

NCZ035-036-292030-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
336 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN
IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF MORAVIAN FALLS...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ALEXANDER AND NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

MOORE