Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...BECOMING
STATIONARY OVER THE GULF STATES.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH
LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE W WITH ASSOC SFC FRONT. DEW POINTS IN
M60S...GOOD INSOLATION...SOME DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS AND CAPE VALUES
1000-2000 J/KG...ALL POINT TOWARD ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS AFTN-EVE...
ESP NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. WINDS GENERALLY WLY ALOFT WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO TAPER OFF MID EVE WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. MRNG TEMPS
WILL COOL TO NEAR 60...WITH 50S MTNS.

FRONT STALLS JUST S OF CWA SUN AND MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING A WEAK WAVE ALONG BOUNDARY TO THE W AND MOVG IT INTO W
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE INCREASING CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE DAY WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS FROM THE W IN THE
MRNG...THEN CHANCE SHWRS OVER MTNS AND W CWA..SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. ALSO WENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS AFTER 18Z FOR THE
MTNS AND W. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH M-U70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...M60S-L70S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATES THRU AMPLIFYING
FLOW ALOFT...LOWER LVL RESPONSE WILL BE TO RETURN MOISTURE BACK NORTH
ACRS THE CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN STABLE AIRMASS
REMAINING NORTH OF STALLED FRONT...EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 06-18 UTC SUNDAY AND ACRS THE
WESTERN CWFA WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS SHOULD ENHANCE PCPN. LINGERING
CLOUDS AND PCPN WITHIN THE COOL AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY COOL
CONDS ON MONDAY...PERHAPS SOME 8-10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. DEEPER
DRYING...SFC RIDGING AND COOL TEMPS TO ENCROACH UPON THE FA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LLVL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. SOME WEAK
RETURN FLOW DOES GET UNDERWAY WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS PROGGING A
WEAK RESPONSE WITHIN THE LLVL CONVERGENCE AREA ACRS THE MTNS...BUT
WITH WARMING ALOFT AND OVERALL DEPTH OF DRY AIR...PLAN ON KEEPING
FCST DRY WITH MAX TEMPS WARMING BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...DESPITE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
ATOP THE SE CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING MORE AGRESSIVE WITH THE SE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAIN
AN ISSUE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE OP GFS SOLUTION STILL THE FASTEST OF
THE BUNCH. NOT SURE THIS REALLY MAKES MUCH OF DIFFERENCE FOR THE
SENSIBLE WX FCST FOR THURSDAY...AS TSTM CHANCES IN THE RETURN FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEM TO BE INCREASING. FOR FRIDAY THOUGH...IT
IS HARD NOT GO GIVE AT LEAST SOME PROPS TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
OP GFS AND WILL BACK OFF POP TO A HEDGE SLIGHT CHANCE...AND IF
NEEDED...WILL DROP POP IN LATER PACKAGES IF THE DRY SOLUTION BECOMES
THE FAVORED ONE. ONLY NOMINAL EVIDENCE EXISTS AT THIS JUNCTURE WHICH
WOULD POINT TO ANYTHING DIFFERENT THAN A FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM
FCST FOR NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...PREDOMINATE VFR. AT LEAST SCT TSTMS INTO THIS
EVE WITH ASSOC CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVIER SHWRS AS SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE W. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL MOST LIKELY CONCERN WITH ANY STORM TODAY. S-SW WINDS TAPERING
OFF THIS EVE...TURNING N-NE SUN MRNG. WITH FRONT STALLED ALONG S CWA
EXPECT LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS FOR SC TERMINALS SUN MRNG WITH INCRSNG
CHANCE CONVECTION TOWARD AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY MORNING ON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
119 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-SCZ001>014-
019-101730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
119 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-101730-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
119 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

NCZ051-052-059-062-063-091800-
HAYWOOD-MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-SWAIN-
134 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN SWAIN...NORTHERN
JACKSON...NORTHERN MACON AND SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

AT 132 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SMOKEMONT TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALARKA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN SWAIN...NORTHERN JACKSON...NORTHERN MACON AND
SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

CHEROKEE...SYLVA...CULLOWHEE...MAGGIE VALLEY...WAYNESVILLE AND
CANTON...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

NCZ048-049-053-091830-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-YANCEY-
151 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BUNCOMBE...SOUTHERN
MADISON AND WESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEICESTER...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BUNCOMBE...SOUTHERN MADISON AND WESTERN YANCEY
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LEICESTER...WEAVERVILLE AND BARNARDSVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LANE

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