River Flood Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
JUST TO KEEP ALL INTERESTED PARTIES IN THE LOOP...HAVE CANCELLED FZRA
ADVISORY WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY AND PARED BACK ICE
STORM WARNING AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING AREAS OF WARNING LEVEL
ACCRETION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
STOUT SSE LLVL 85H JET TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOOSENING/VARYING SFC PRES GRADIENT TO ALLOW ALL
WIND PRODUCTS TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS WELL. HAVE ISSUED SHORT
FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR UNTIL 4 PM. NEW
12 UTC NAM SBCAPE FCSTS POS VALUES SKIRTING BY JUST TO THE SE OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL PLAN ON KEEPING JUST ELEVATED TSTM
THREAT ACRS THE SE CWFA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM FRI...AN INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES SAT AND SAT NITE. THE CWFA WILL BE UNDER
A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE
QUITE DRY OVERALL. HIGHS SAT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL WILL BEGIN TO BE PICKED BACK UP BY THE
WESTERLIES...MOVING BRIEFLY TO THE SOUTH BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTH. AS THIS HAPPENS...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA AS A SHORT WAVE SHOOTS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK GULF LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THIS BRINGS SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS NO TO VERY LOW POP. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE SREF WHICH HAS VERY HIGH POP WITH VERY LOW QPF.
WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW AND INTO THE
AREA SUN NITE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...IT WILL
BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR NW FLOW SNOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NWLY
FLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POP IN THE CHC TO
SLIGHT CHC RANGE OVER THE USUAL AREAS. THE SNOW SHOWERS END BY
AFTERNOON MONDAY. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. LOWS AND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST UNDER RIDGING
ALOFT. MODEL SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...PRIMARILY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM. THE COLLECTION OF GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM ALL HANDLE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIFFERENTLY ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO TRACK
AND TIMING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND KEEPS ACCUMULATING
PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF TAKE THE LOW
SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND UP THE EAST COAST SPREADING
PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MIND THE END OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. I HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POP IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IT DRY UP TO
THAT POINT. AT THIS POINT...ATTEMPTING TO PREDICT PTYPE FOR SUCH A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SUCH A FUTILE EXERCISE THAT I WILL
HANDLE WX AS RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL MIDDAY AS THE
BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOVES ACROSS THE AIRFIELD. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT MIDDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR. BY EARLY EVENING WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND VFR
RETURNS. LIGHT WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MIDDAY. MEANWHILE IFR CEILINGS RISE TO MVFR...AND VISIBILITY
IMPROVES FROM MVFR TO VFR AS RAIN DIMINISHES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. BY EVENING VFR RETURNS AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MET GUIDANCE HAS PESSIMISTIC FOG RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...AND FOG WILL NOT BE
CARRIED IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA WED AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY WED NIGHT RETURNING FLIGHT CATS TO VFR FOR THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ057-070>072-082.
     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-
     053-501>507.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ048-051-058-059-
     062-063.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-069>072-082.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-261530-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-068-501>510-261530-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...ICING AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ035-036-056-069-261530-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-CATAWBA-LINCOLN-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   ICE STORM WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...ICING AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ052-261530-
HAYWOOD-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...ICING AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ048-051-058-059-062-063-261530-
MADISON-SWAIN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ010-017-261530-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ057-070>072-082-SCZ009-014-261530-
ROWAN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-CHESTER-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE AND FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ037-261530-
DAVIE-
1023 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...ICING AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
818 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

SCZ008-009-013-014-251400-
CHEROKEE-CHESTER-UNION-YORK-
818 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CHEROKEE...EASTERN
UNION...NORTHWESTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTIES THROUGH
900 AM EST...

AT 818 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITMIRE...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF NEWBERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UNION...
  SHARON...SARATT...MONARCH MILLS...LOCKHART...HICKORY GROVE...
  BULLOCK CREEK AND ADAMSBURG.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
900 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
12/25/2009                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MUD CREEK OUT OF IT/S BANKS. KING AND GROVE STREETS AND 5
            POINTS FLOODED.

0805 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE HENDERSONVILLE     35.37N 82.40W
12/25/2009                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CLEAR CREEK OUT OF IT/S BANKS...FRUITLAND ROAD FLOODED.

0820 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
12/25/2009                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BAT FORK CREEK OUT OF IT/S BANKS...JACKSON PARK AND
            AIRPORT ROAD FLOODED.

&&

CSH