Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 241519
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2009

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-250000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0009.090224T1700Z-090225T0000Z/
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
1019 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW MOISTURE LEVELS IN NEEDLES...TWIGS...BRANCHES...AND OTHER
FUELS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUEL SOURCES WILL CREATE HIGH FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL. BE VERY CAREFUL WITH ANY IGNITION SOURCES.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER HIGH
WILL BUILD IN TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO REBOUND TODAY...BUT REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
OVER THE WESTERN CWFA. CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THRU THE DAY AND MAY
LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY. THIS STILL BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP TO THE
MTNS...SLIGHT WARMING TO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND ERN UPSTATE.
WRN UPSTATE AND NE GA WILL SEE NEARLY STEADY HIGHS.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TONIGHT. CLOUDY
SKIES AND WARMER THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL...LOWS ACROSS THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLY FALLING OVER THE
MTNS. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THEY ARE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK S/W TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...FLOW BACKS TO A MORE SLY COMPONENT...WITH VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...AND DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVELS MOISTEN IN SWLY WAA
FLOW...AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES
(MAINLY ACRS THE WRN THIRD OF CWFA). I MADE LTL CHANGE TO POPS FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH NOTHING HIGHER THAN A
LOW-END CHC ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST-FACING
SLOPES. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT...AND WAA AND MOISTURE
LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING (SO NO WINTRY P-TYPES EXPECTED).
TEMPS REBOUND FURTHER TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DESPITE PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO OUR CWFA BY FRIDAY AFTN. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR DECENT COVERAGE
WITH THE FROPA. THE TIMING IS NOT PEGGED...AS LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO BE DELAYED ON TIME OF THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL. I MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY (A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST BEGINS 00Z SAT WITH
THE OLDER 12Z ECMWF FORMING AN UPPER LVL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEWER 00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO
OLDER RUNS AND NO LONGER HAS THIS FEATURE. INSTEAD IT HAS A VERY
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT LINGERS OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THERE ARE NOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES BTW THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS. THE EC STILL HAS A STRONG LOW DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SUN AND PRODUCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP THRU MON. IN
CONTRAST...THE NEW GFS HAS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SAT AND SUN AND REMAIN THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE
THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS ONLY GENERATES MARGINAL QPF MOSTLY
FROM UPSLOPE FLOW ON MON.

WITH THE GFS NOW LEANING AWAY FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND MORE IN
LINE WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE...I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE GRIDS I
INHERITED. THUS...I DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
SENSIBLE WX FCST. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS STILL EARLY SAT WITH
LINGERING POST FRONTAL MOISTURE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY UP LATER ON SAT AND POPS REMAIN
LOW FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. STILL ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASING
CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ACROSS A WARM
FRONT IN THE GULF. TEMPS WERE ONLY TWEAKED A BIT WITH VALUES BUMPED
UP A DEGREE OR TWO ON DAYS 5 AND 6. MAX VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEB/EARLY MAR.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND
WILL MOVE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND
NOON. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH MID
LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

AT KCLT...WITH WIND SHIFTING DURING THE MORNING...TIMING OF
DIRECTION MOVING SOUTH OF EAST BECOMES TRICKY. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT
OCCURRING AT 19Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SELY WIND COULD DEVELOP
BEFORE NOON.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH LEE TROF IN PLACE AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY...DEWPOINTS
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER ACROSS THE CWFA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE...BUT RH VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...NE GA WILL BE THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE RED FLAG IS REACHED. WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WX WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING. WILL KEEP RABUN COUNTY OUT...SINCE OBSERVED
FUEL MOISTURES THERE WERE ABOVE 10 PERCENT...AND DURATION OF LOW RH
IS IN QUESTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
822 PM EST MON FEB 23 2009

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-250130-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
822 PM EST MON FEB 23 2009

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-250130-
RABUN-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
822 PM EST MON FEB 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.