Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 170108
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-170915-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0003.090117T1600Z-090118T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
808 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ON SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 171635
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-180000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090118T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
1135 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL. THIS WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT DURING AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1104 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...BEFORE A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY THE WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION STILL LOOKS GOOD AND
I/VE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HIGH TEMPS. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT NOON. VALUES AT OR BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...BUT THEY RETREAT TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THEREFORE. I DON/T SEE MUCH POINT IN EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND I/LL LET IT EXPIRE AT 17 UTC.

SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN CIRRUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES BY. CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLES NEAR
THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINING VERY LIGHT WINDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL
LEAD TO VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO
BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE MTN RIDGES.
H85 TEMPS AND MID LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO
A NEGATIVE LAPSE RATE. DO NOT HAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES ABOVE ADVISORY LEVEL. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM BEGINS W/ ARCTIC HI PRES
SHIFTING E OF THE FA...AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES. MODEL SNDGS SHOW SOME CI STREAMING INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTN...WHILE RETURN FLOW OUT OF WSW. MODEL THICKNESSES AND
MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN LINE W/ INHERITED MAX TEMPS SATURDAY...SO NO
CHANGES THERE. DEWPTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION...AS MAV JUST BOTTOMS
OUT W/ -10F E OF THE MTNS. I BLENDED A LTL MAV INTO THE GRIDS...AS
BL DEWPTS ARE STILL FCST TO BE BELOW ZERO F.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKS THRU GREAT LAKES...THEN SLOWS DOWN OVR THE NORTHEAST
STATES...AS SHARP S/W TROF DIGS OVR ERN CONUS. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND LIMITED. LLVL TEMPS WILL BE
SUB-FREEZING (NO WARM NOSE INDICATED) CWA-WIDE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN
MORNING. SO IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACRS THE AREA...IT SHUD BE SNOW.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THERMAL STRUCTURE...SO THE
WX NOMOGRAM AND TOP DOWN APPROACH WERE A BLEND. THERE SHUD BE ENUF
WAA TO CAUSE A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ACRS NE GA...UPSTATE AND SWRN
NC PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTN. IN THE MTNS...THERE COULD BE A MIX IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT OTRW IT SHUD STAY ALL SNOW. THERE LOOKS TO BE BOTH
FGEN FORCING AND UPR JET DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIP SUNDAY...BUT
W/ LIMITED MOISTURE POPS WERE KEPT JUST IN THE SLGT CHC TO CHC
RANGE.

H85 FLOW STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGINS TO VEER TO
NWLY. SO SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ACTIVITY INVOF TN/NC BORDER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT. I MADE FEW CHANGES TO TEMPS KEEPING CLOSE TO COOL END
OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS ARCTIC AIR MASS INFLUENCE. SNOW AMTS
MAY REACH ADVY CRITERIA BY MON MORNING IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT PERIOD AS
LONGWAVE +PNA PATTERN CONTINUES MON AND TUE AND SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN WED AND THU. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THE E CONUS H5 TROF AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY POLAR AND MODIFIED ARCTIC S/W
ENERGY THROUGH WED. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPS A COUPLE
CATS BELOW NORMAL BEFORE MODIFYING IN FLAT RIDGING WED AND THU.

THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER ROUNDING THE S/W ENERGY AROUND THE MEAN TROF
AXIS MON...HOWEVER GOOD AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN LLVL MASS FIELDS AND
DYNAMICALLY GENERATED H85 MOISTURE. SNOW CHANCES FOR THE NC MTNS HAS
BEEN LEFT IN THE SLIGHT CAT AS A SEPARATE VORT CENTER DIGS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY AND SPLITS THE OVERALL FLOW. THIS WILL CREATE
A DIFFUSE H85 HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA. WEAK H85 FLOW...LESS
THAN 10 KTS...WONT BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE TOPO LIFT NOR SUPPORT HIGH
SNOWFALL RATES TO WORRY ABOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN H5 TROF WILL INSTIGATE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE MON...WITH THE DEEPER ECMWF ADVERTISING
ONLY A 1004 MB LOW TRAVERSING THE LOW COUNTRY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SOME WRAP UPSLOPE ATL MOISTURE REACHING THE MTNS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE TUE...HOWEVER FAIRLY WEAK BL WINDS WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ADV
AND LIFT TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS BEYOND THE GOING SLT -SNSH
ALREADY FORECASTED FOR THE NC MTNS.

THE GEFS HAS A WEAK H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE TUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT RANGE. THIS AGREES WELL WITH ITS
OWN OP RUN...ALSO THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY SPREAD DROPS FROM 70M AT
12Z WED TO 45M BY 00Z THU. SO...WILL EXPECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF
SFC TEMPS WED AND AN EVEN BETTER THERMAL RESPONSE THU AS LLVL
THETA/E TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO MODIFY AND SHIFT NE. IN ANY
REGARD...MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WED AND PERHAPS A CAT ABOVE NORMAL THU. THESE RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER DEVELOPING
L/W TROF TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FRI. THIS IS BEYOND THE NORMAL
FORECAST RANGE AND NO REAL VALUE IS GOING TO BE ADDED TO THIS POSSIBLE
SCENARIO...HOWEVER A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE WEAK/FLAT NATURE OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE
AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF THE REDUCED YET STILL
L/W +PNA RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONE EXCEPTION IS KAVL WHERE
GUSTY NORTH WIND DIMINISHES TO AROUND 10 KTS NEAR NOON...THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION IS KAND WHERE LEE TROF
WILL CAUSE A WESTERLY WIND FOR THE AFTERNOON. WAVE CLOUD CIRRUS WILL
BECOME BKN AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

AT KCLT...N WIND NEAR 10 KT THRU THE DAY BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WAVE CLOUD CIRRUS WILL BECOME BKN AT TIMES DURING
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL REACH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH PROBABLY JUST SOME VFR
CEILINGS TO CONTEND WITH. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AROUND KAVL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON
AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT TODAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S BEFORE TUMBLING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE. PREVIOUS NE GA
FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AVAILABLE FROM THE GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION
SUGGEST 10 HOUR MOISTURE OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. PENDING FURTHER
COORDINATION ON THESE ISSUES...THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE
HEADLINED FOR THE DRY AIR. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED...HOWEVER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
112 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

SCZ004>014-019-171815-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
112 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME AREAS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. MAKE SURE THAT EXPOSED PIPES ARE INSULATED OR
KEEP YOUR TAPS DRIPPING SLOWLY TO KEEP THEM FROM FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-171815-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
112 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MAKE SURE THAT EXPOSED PIPES ARE
INSULATED OR KEEP YOUR TAPS DRIPPING SLOWLY TO KEEP THEM FROM
FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-171815-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
112 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINS OF CAROLINAS. MAKE SURE THAT EXPOSED PIPES ARE INSULATED
OR KEEP YOUR TAPS DRIPPING SLOWLY TO KEEP THEM FROM FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-171815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-
112 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MAKE SURE THAT EXPOSED PIPES ARE
INSULATED OR KEEP YOUR TAPS DRIPPING SLOWLY TO KEEP THEM FROM
FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-171815-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
112 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME AREAS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. MAKE SURE THAT EXPOSED PIPES ARE INSULATED OR
KEEP YOUR TAPS DRIPPING SLOWLY TO KEEP THEM FROM FREEZING
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

14