Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...THEN SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SET UP THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WV IMAGERY LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS IT DID THIS TIME YSTDY...DEEP
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACRS THE SE CONUS...WELL DOWNSTREAM OF A
MIDWEST VORTEX. 00 UTC OBSERVED AREA SNDGS ALSO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE...VERY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND PWATS ABOUT 160
PERCENT OF NORMAL. IT IS NOT TAKING MUCH TO MAINTAIN HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS EARLY THIS MORNING...JUST ENOUGH TERRAIN LIFT AND
DEEP MOISTURE MAKING UP FOR THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT. WITH SOME
HEATING TODAY...EXPECTING DEEP CONVECTION TO REINVIGORATE AND EXPAND
AS THE MEAN PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED. LOCALIZED HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ACRS THE CWFA. OP MODEL AND SREF CONSENSUS PROGS A QPF MAXIMUM ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE CAROLINA/NE GA FTHLS
INTO TONIGHT. KGSP STP SHOWS THAT THE ANTECEDENT CONDS ACRS THIS
AREA IS RIPE AS WELL...SO WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY SHOWERS...FEEL THAT A FFA WOULD NOT BE A BAD IDEA. SO...THE
SENSIBLE WX WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MORNING SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING TO NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS AS THE
DAY WEARS ON AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THE FLOW CONTINUES
TO FEATURE A SSE DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LLVLS...AT LEAST
SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THRU TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH LOCAL TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN MTNS AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE TROPICAL LOOKING SYSTEM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MOVING NORTHWARD EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH WED NIGHT. COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN IN THE LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDES JUST ENOUGH TRIGGERING
IN THE SATURATED AIRMASS.

850 MB FLOW WILL FINALLY VEER TO WESTERLY WED NIGHT INTO THU AS LOW
PRES MOVES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING...AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES HIGHER FOR THU AFTN
MAXES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE MTNS FROM THE NW LATE
THURSDAY...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. SOLID
CHANCE POPS WILL BE FEATURED WITH THE FROPA...AND TEMPS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SLOW DRYING FROM THE WEST IS INDICATED ON
SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ON MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AROUND BERMUDA
HIGH PRES MONDAY AFTN. SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EVEN
AT THIS LATE NITE HOUR. ONE WOULD EXPECT DIMINISHING CVRG AS THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS CREEP BY...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS...AT LEAST BRIEFLY THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF LOW CIGS...DOWN TO IFR LVL...LOOKS LIKELY
AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LINGERING THROUGH
MID-MORNING. PLANNING ON VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND DEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG RETURNING TO NUMEROUS INTO THE
EVENING.

AT KCLT...WILL PLAN ON JUST VCSH OVERNIGHT AS BEST CONVECTIVE CVRG
SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT/PRE-DAWN IFR CIGS...JUST
LIKE WHAT OCCURRED MONDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIVE CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID-MORNING ONWARD WITH CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THAT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MVFR DAYTIME TO IFR
NIGHTTIME CEILINGS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ062>065-
     501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ001-002-
     004-005.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CSH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-260530-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
1249 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
GREENVILLE...NORTHERN PICKENS AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 130
AM EDT...

AT 1248 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF ROCKY BOTTOM...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PICKENS...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKY BOTTOM...
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...
  ROSMAN...
  BREVARD...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

NCZ504-260645-
GREATER BURKE-
154 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HIGH RAIN FALL RATES WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY...

AT 148 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF CASAR PRODUCING RAIN FALL RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS STORM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR...SO NO IMMEDIATE FLOODING CONCERN IS
HAD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THIS STORM BECOMES STATIONARY AND
REMAINS STRONG A FLOOD ADVISORY OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

GAZ010-260715-
RABUN-
221 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT RABUN COUNTY...

AT 218 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE RABUN...PRODUCING RAIN FALL RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS STORM IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AT AROUND 10 MILES PER HOUR...SO NO IMMEDIATE FLOODING CONCERN IS
HAD AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THIS STORM SLOWS OR BECOMES
STATIONARY AND REMAINS STRONG...A FLOOD ADVISORY OR FLASH FLOOD
WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

NCZ056-260745-
CATAWBA-
253 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CATAWBA COUNTY THROUGH
345 AM EDT...

AT 250 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF TERRELL PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN FALL RATES AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS MOVING...SO NO IMMEDIATE FLOODING CONCERN IS HAD AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THIS STORM SLOWS OR BECOMES STATIONARY WHILE
REMAINING STRONG...A FLOOD ADVISORY OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

NCZ501-502-261000-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
301 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2009

...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CALDWELL
COUNTY THROUGH 600 AM EDT...

AT 358 AM EDT...TORRENTIAL RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BURKE
AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS CALDWELL COUNTY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE...RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY HEAVY AND/OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS...AND PERHAPS ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

CSH