Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1248 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR
REGION.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.  BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXCEPT FOR THE OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WEATHER TRENDS ARE
FOLLOWING THE FCST MOSTLY AS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD MODERATE WITH
PATCHES OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. A SECOND LARGE AREA OF THIS RAINFALL IS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND HEADING THIS WAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT
BEEN EXCESSIVE SO FAR...THE CUMULATIVE AFFECT OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL COULD STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
THE WATCH IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST H85 WINDS WERE STILL JUST TO OUR
WEST...BUT HEADING THIS WAY AS WELL. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WIND ADV WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AS WELL. NAM/SREF STILL SUGGEST THE COASTAL WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT. POSITIVE CAPE VALUES DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT...AND THIS
COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE...COULD STILL PRODUCE
SOME SEVERE STORMS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST VALUES DUE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FCST.

AS FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT PRECIP TO LIFT NE WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN THE
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE MTNS.
KEPT MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WHICH KEEPS THE PRECIP ALL LIQUID.
AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY. LLVL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BANKED
ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ONLY FEW
TO ISO SHRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF NC INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. I WILL REDUCE POPS TO SCHC GIVEN WEAK WEST WINDS AND
LIMITED MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST. ALOFT...L/W TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
MIDDLE CONUS...RESULTING IN FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST.
THICKNESSES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL CLOSE TO
NORMAL...HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN 3-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. A POWERFUL JET STREAKS NORTHWARD ON THE EAST
HALF OF THE TROF LATE FRI NIGHT...PROVIDING A LARGE REGION OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY 12Z SAT. LIFT DEEPENS ACROSS THE
CWA 15Z-21Z SATURDAY AS H7-H5 FRONTOGENESIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 9Z-12Z SAT
AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE THAT
A SMALL REGION -EPV MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE H5 TROF SAT AFTERNOON.

IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE CWA FROM THIS EVENT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
P-TYPE FORECAST. USING A BLEND OF SREF...GFS40 LLVL TEMPS...I WILL
FORECAST FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MID TO U30S EAST OF THE
MTNS BY SUNRISE SAT. HEATING AFTER SUNRISE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY
PRECIP...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND ONGOING NORTH SFC WINDS. HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW
TO MID 40S EAST OF THE MTNS. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THE TOP DOWN
METHOD YIELD MAINLY SN ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX IN THE
VALLEYS. AT THIS POINT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN RA ACROSS NE
GA...SC...AND EAST OF I-40 ACROSS NC. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE H5 TROF RIPPLES EAST OF THE CWA. THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES ABOVE 3000 FEET
IN ELEVATION...WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. SAT NIGHT...SKY COVER WILL
DECREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRESH CAA AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN COLD LOW TEMPS. BY 12Z SUN...TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE L20S ACROSS THE MTNS WITH MID 20S TO 30
DEGREES EAST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS LATE SAT EVENING. DAMP ROADS AND
ONGOING RUNOFF MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLACK ICE SAT NIGHT...PLAN
TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...THE BULK OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE QUIET
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ALOFT...THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE DEFINED BY QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE
PATTERN ON TUESDAY AS A TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FA
ON SUNDAY AND LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE VARIOUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO DEPICT SOME MOISTENING FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND I DO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO AS COOL LOW LEVEL NERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE PERIOD AND UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED IN
THE QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBY
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS HAVE TURNED SELY AT KCLT AND WILL REMAIN SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NELY WINDS...XCPT SLY AT KAVL...WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.
THE SFC WIND COMBINED WITH STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS THRU THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH THEN SW. THIS SHOULD HELP ABATE
ANY WIND SHEAR CONCERNS. PRECIP AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO END
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS
UNTIL THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES IN. WLY WINDS DEVELOP THU
MORNING...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT KAVL
AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-031015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
507 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AREAS ABOVE 3000 FEET IN ELEVATION COULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT ON UNTREATED ROADS...BRIDGES...OR SIDEWALKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-031015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
507 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AREAS ABOVE 3000 FEET IN ELEVATION COULD SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT ON UNTREATED ROADS...BRIDGES...OR SIDEWALKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510-031015-
STEPHENS-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-
507 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. BLACK ICE MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ON UNTREATED ROADS...BRIDGES...OR
SIDEWALKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-031015-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
507 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT ON UNTREATED ROADS...BRIDGES...OR SIDEWALKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1242 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009

SCZ011-012-019-021845-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-LAURENS-
1242 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL TO ABBEVILLE...GREENWOOD AND LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 145
PM EST...

AT 1238 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM LOWNDESVILLE TO CALLISON. THE LINE WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE
RAINFALL AND WILL PRODUCE LOCAL ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES AS THE LINE PASSES. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT AREAS FROM DUE WEST
TO GREENWOOD THROUGH 1 PM...AND THEN REACH FROM GRAY COURT TO JOANNA
BY 130 PM.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. TURN
AND AROUND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

HG