Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 110921
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

SCC045-083-111300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-091111T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SPARTANBURG SC-GREENVILLE SC-
421 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EST FOR
NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES...

AT 411 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND 
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES. LOCAL STREAM GAUGES INDICATE THE REEDY RIVER 
AT GREENVILLE IS WITHIN 0.7 FEET OF FLOOD STAGE AND A CONTINUED SLOW 
RISE IS EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM CREEKS AND 
STREAMS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE REEDY RIVER TO REACH FLOOD 
STAGE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STREAM GAUGE LOCATED ON THE 
MIDDLE TYGER RIVER HAS SHOWN STEEP RISES IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS 
AND IT IS NOW WITHIN 1.5 FEET OF FLOOD STAGE...WHICH IS 9.5 FEET. 

ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND FLOODING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY 
ACROSS SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS NATURAL LOW LYING AREAS 
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8256 3518 8246 3517 8244 3520 8241
      3521 8238 3518 8236 3519 8235 3519 8231
      3520 8224 3518 8200 3480 8208 3478 8246

$$

KRENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA
COAST THURSDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
OVERHEAD AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FCST NEEDED THIS EVENING...AS LONG-DURATION
RAIN EVENT IS UNDER WAY.

WIND-DRIVEN RAIN IS THE STORY TONIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF
IDA SLOWLY EDGES EWD NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. A RAIN SHIELD OF
MODERATE TO SOME EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR
MOSAIC...EXTENDING FROM ERN AL...THRU ERN TN/WRN NC...TO SWRN VA.
THIS RAIN BAND WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EWD ACRS THE CWFA...COINCIDENT
WITH AREA OF STRONG 700-500 MB FGEN FORCING AND UPR DIV ASSOC W/ RRQ
OF 250 MB JET. AT THE SFC...PRES GRAD HAS INCREASED AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE...AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE SE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES.

AS OF 9 PM...QPF TOTALS HAVE RUN FROM OVER 2 ACRS THE SWRN NC
MTNS...TO 0.75 ACRS THE NWRN NC PIEDMONT. RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY 0.25/HR OR LESS...WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED RATES IN THE
0.25-0.50 RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THREATS FOR ANY FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL NC MTNS THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE THAT
AREA...GENERALLY JUST LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING DUE TO POOR DRAINAGE
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. KEEP IN MIND...RAIN TOTALS WILL ADD UP SUCH
THAT A FLOOD THREAT OF RIVERS/CREEKS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
(AS RAIN ACCUMS APPROACH THE 3-5 RANGE). SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL A FEW DEGREES BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF IDA
CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH COLD CORE TROUGH RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACRS THE REGION. 12 UTC OP GLOBAL MODELS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE GFS/ECMWF...CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS MAX INTO THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. MODEL
RESPONSE CONSENSUS PAINTS THE HEAVIEST QPF ALONG THIS AXIS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EVEN RAINFALL ACRS THE PIEDMONT STANDS TO BE
IMPRESSIVE...DRIVEN BY THE DEEP AND ROBUST UPGLIDE FLOW. CONTINUED
DIGGING OF UPPER TROUGH AND THE ASSUMPTION OF A NEUTRAL TILT...WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYERED FORCING MAXIMA LINGERING ACRS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE
ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY INTO THE
EVENING. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF IDA/S REMNANTS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND DRIVEN RAINFALL TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMTS BY THE END OF THE NEAR
TERM...FFA WILL CONTINUE AS IS...AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD
TOPPLE TREES WITHIN THE SATURATED SOIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CUT OFF A DEEP H5
LOW OVER THE SC COAST WED NIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THU BEFORE IT STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE
EAST. THIS PHASING OF NRN STREAM ENERGY AND THE REMNANTS OF IDA IS A
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING WHICH HAD A
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH THAT KICKED THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS OUT TO SEA WED EVENING.

THE NAM AND GFS NOW HAVE A STRONG LOW OFF THE SC COAST WED NIGHT AND
THU...WITH A 50-60 KT NE ORIENTED H8 JET OVER THE FA DURING THIS
TIME ON THE GFS. THE FLOW IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER ON THE NAM. THE
NAM DROPS THE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS. THIS PULLS IT/S HEAVY DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY ON THU.
HOWEVER...THEY BOTH HAVE A PERIOD OF STRONG LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WHICH MAXIMIZES LATE THE DAY ON THU OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR ON THE
NAM AND CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER ON THE GFS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
A GOOD BET AS THIS HAPPENS...THOUGH PREDICTING WHERE THE HEAVIEST
DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN FALLS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. FORTUNATELY THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS HINT THAT THE HEAVY PCPN MAY INDEED STAY NORTH
OF OF THE CHARLOTTE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH THIS SECOND PHASE OF THE
EVENT. HOWEVER...WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THINGS AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THE ORIENTATION OF THEIR AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PCPN RUN TO RUN.

WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES OVER
THE ERN ZONES WED THROUGH THU. WITH THE GROUND SATURATED FROM THE
HEAVY RAIN...AN UNUSUAL NUMBER OF TREES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GREATER THAN USUAL URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL OWING TO
LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE ERN PART OF THE FA AS THE GALE
CENTER TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE COAST THU NIGHT...THOUGH EVEN THAT/S
IN SOME DOUBT PER THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. SKIES PROBABLY
WON/T CLEAR ON FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
STEADY TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...EVEN IF THE SLOWEST OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...AN UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE REGION FOR
CLEARING BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCE IN
HOW HOW DEEPLY AND HOW FAR WEST THE NEXT LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION
WILL OCCUR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
ECMWF THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEPER AND
SLOWER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT SAT AND SUN SHOULD BOTH
BE NICE DAYS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WEAK
FRONT MAY DROP TEMPS BACK A LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT THE FORCING STAYS
WELL WEST OF THE REGION. I DIDN/T GO AGAINST HPC/S LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE GULF CUT OFF...ANY PCPN
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
MVFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME PERIODS OF IFR
ARE LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE...AND THIS THREAT HAS BEEN ADDRESSED WITH
TEMPOS. OTHERWISE...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION SLOWS CONSIDERABLY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON...PERIODS OF +RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
AS WELL.

ELSEWHERE...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...RAIN...AND MAINLY LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS (OCCL IFR) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING. THE RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID-DAY OR SO...THUS CATEGORICAL RAIN
GIVES WAY TO VCSH AROUND 18Z AT THE UPSTATE SC TERMINALS AND KAVL.
HOWEVER...RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT
KHKY. ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED...AND VISBY
SHOULD INCREASE TO VFR AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END...ABUNDANT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LINGER ACRS THE FA THRU
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO JUST THE NC PIEDMONT/FTHLS WED NITE INTO THURSDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-501>508.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-509-510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ008-009-014.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR SCZ001>007-010>013-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-SCZ008-009-014-112115-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER-
414 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES. AS THE GROUND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SATURATED...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK OVER
A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF TREES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES AND BLOCKED ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER TWO INCHES
AS WELL AS ANY STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS THAT ARE FLOODING ROADS.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-509-510-
SCZ001>007-010>013-019-112115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
414 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES. AS THE GROUND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SATURATED...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK OVER
A FEW TREES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND A FEW BLOCKED ROADS CAN
BE EXPECTED. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL TOTALS OVER TWO INCHES
AS WELL AS ANY STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS THAT ARE FLOODING ROADS.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
859 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

NCZ033-049-050-068-501>510-110400-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...SHELBY...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS
859 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...

AT 855 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RATES POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...COLUMBUS...LAKE LURE...MARION...MORGANTON...LENOIR...AND
NEWLAND. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED BETWEEN AN INCH AND ONE
AND A QUARTER INCHES TODAY.

DEEP PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS
WELL AS ALONG ROADWAYS...CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO...STEADY RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT
TO DRIVE ACROSS WATER COVERED ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

BSH