Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 2Z...WEAK CAD BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTED ALONG THE
SPARTANBURG/UNION COUNTY LINE. THE CAD BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISENTROPIC
LIFT...LINGERING INSTABILITY...JET SUPPORT...AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT SCT SC AND NC SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DEEP INSTABILITY AND ADVANCING MID LEVEL DRY AIR. LIGHT NE SFC WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TONIGHT.
INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY YIELD AREAS OF
STRATUS BY SUNRISE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL TO VALUES NEAR
MONDAY/S VALUES.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE THE AREA REMAINS DRY. MODEL CAPE VALUES DON/T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE...AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH TEMPS/DWPTS REBOUNDING AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MID LVL FLOW
OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S MTNS
AND MID TO UPPER 80S PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS E OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUE NIGHT...HEIGHTS INCREASE SOME AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUE
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NC
PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. ON WED...BOTH/GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY IN THE DAY...MOVING TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WED EVENING WITH TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS RESPOND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. NO
TRIGGER EVIDENT E OF THE MOUNTAINS ON WED...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY
THERE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SETTLES OVER THE DEEP S WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU SUPPORTING THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT....SPREADING
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT. COULD SEE A GSP SLIT IN
PRECIP LATE WED NIGHT WITH NEW CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE PIEDMONT
ON THU IN WEAK AREA OF SURFACE COPNVERGENCE. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH
GOOD CHANCE POPS E OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THU. USED A MOS BLEND FOR
TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MAX TEMPS JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. FAVORED
GFS POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MON...UPPER AIR PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING INTO THE DEEP S INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT. HPC FOLLOWED A ECM/ECM ENSEMBLE MIX WHICH IS NOT TOO DISSIMIAR
TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE E THU EVENING...THEN DRY OVERNIGHT. FRI COULD END UP DRY
FOR THE MOST PART AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ONLY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN TOP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SAT
WILL ALSO FAVOR JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARBY. ECM AND GFS BRING NEXT SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME...SO WILL HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY STAYS IN THE AREA
MON...SO WILL HAVE TO HANG ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THAT DAY. MAX
TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SAT...THEN DROPPING A CATEGORY OR
TWO BELOW FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 2350Z...TCLT TDWR INDICATED A BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM
GAFFNEY TO LANCASTER. THE BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY SOUTHWEST...PUSHED BY
SFC NE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ALOFT...SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE A STREAK OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND UPPER SUPPORT MAY CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE CHCS FOR TSRA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A CEILING BETWEEN 030-060 KFT AND VFR
BR BY 9Z. LIGHT FOG AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY MIX AFTER SUNRISE WITH
LIGHT ENE WINDS. BY MID DAY...SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH
AND CU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 050 KFT WITH A MID CEILINGS.

ELSEWHERE...AT 2350Z...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS
RUTHERFORD CO. SE ACROSS CHEROKEE AND YORK COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NE WINDS. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS SFC FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CAD. SHRA AND ISO TSRA MAY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. I WILL INDICATE THAT KHKY AND KAVL WILL SEE
THE GREATEST CHCS FOR -RA. DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR KAVL AND KHKY INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR BR
AND STRATUS. LIGHT FOG AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY MIX AFTER SUNRISE
WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS. BY MID DAY...SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH AND CU WILL DEVELOP AROUND 050 KFT WITH A MID CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
AROUND MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...NED/ARK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-082-507-
509-510-SCZ001>014-019-212000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-UNION NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
350 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THAT ACCOMPANIES
ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-501>506-508-212000-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
350 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE... PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. MORE COMMON WILL BE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF...HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

NCZ033-050-210015-
AVERY-MITCHELL-
746 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 744 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

*  LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPRUCE PINE
   AND INGALLS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

NCZ082-210030-
UNION-
802 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY
THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 801 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES EAST OF MONROE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STURDIVANTS
  AND MARSHVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
809 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

NCZ033-050-505-210045-
AVERY-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-
809 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 808 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF ASHFORD...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SPRUCE PINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOODLAWN...
  SPRUCE PINE...INGALLS AND ASHFORD.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1138 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

SCZ009-210430-
YORK-
1138 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK COUNTY THROUGH 1230
AM EDT...

AT 1137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCK HILL...MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TEGA CAY...
  ROCK HILL AND FORT MILL.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY