Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 081954
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

GAC119-137-257-082004-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-090708T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FRANKLIN GA-STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-
354 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN
HABERSHAM...STEPHENS AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

LAT...LON 3454 8364 3463 8366 3468 8365 3466 8337
      3449 8307 3427 8312 3423 8317 3426 8329
      3424 8333 3432 8340 3446 8340 3448 8356
      3443 8362 3450 8368

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1207 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE GULF COAST AND
DISSIPATE LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH BUT WEAKEN BY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST W/V LOOP INDICATES A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS TN/N AL/N GA
LATE THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXPAND ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE VORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE TIMING OF
THE VORT...INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE
WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK LLVL
FLOW WILL KEEP STORM MOTIONS LIMITED TO 10 KTS OR LESS. PW VALUES
SHOULD PERSIST NEAR 1.5 INCHES...K INDEX IN THE U30S...AND WEAK CAPE
THROUGH TONIGHT. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE EAST
FACING SLOPES AND WILL TAPER TO SCHC ALONG AND EAST OF I-77.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE REST TO TODAY/S FORECAST.

MOISTURE LINGERS OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY...BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL LEVELS OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WELL AFTER SUNSET. SLIGHT-TO-LOW CHANCE
POPS WILL THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
MOVES EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE GULF
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING INSTABILITY. WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE
FORCING FOR SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION
BECOMES ISOLATED DURING THE EVENING...BUT COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MTNS WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW THU NITE. HIGHS THU LOOK TO BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING
CONVECTION. LOWS THU NITE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.

WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM DECREASING LAPSE
RATES. SFC RIDGING BUILDING WILL HELP ELIMINATE UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVER THE MTNS
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THERE. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD
BE ENUF TRIGGER TO PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION NORTH TO ISOLATED SOUTH.
CONVECTION MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT LOWER
THAN HEIGHT RISES WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO CONTINUED CLOUDS. LOWS ALSO
REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL PICTURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT DIFFER ON THE
DETAILS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FCST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE LATER WHERE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY
INCREASES. ON THE ECMWF...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND RETROGRADES AS
FLAT TROF BUILDS OVER THE EAST. THIS HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS GENERALLY AGREES...BUT BREAKS THE FRONT
IN TWO ON MONDAY WITH THE FIRST PART PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS LEAVES THE TRAILING FRONT TO OUR WEST AND MOVING BACK
NORTH ON TUE. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE HPC GUIDANCE AND TRENDED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN DIURNAL MTN SLIGHT CHC SAT...
AND DIURNAL CHC POP EVERYWHERE SUNDAY. KEPT POP NON-DIURNAL AND IN
THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE EVERYWHERE MONDAY AND TUE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SAT...RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MON/TUE. LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...BUT THE THREAT ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A
MENTION OF CONVECTION ATTM. THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EXIST
WELL WEST OF KCLT.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VCNY OF KAVL THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...GOOD
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...AS EASTERLY
FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE. THE OVERALL LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...TS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY NEAR
THE TAF SITES. VCTS/CB WILL BE CARRIED AT MOST TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH KAND AND KAVL BEING MOST LIKELY TO SEE A TS.
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SLOW THIS DIMINISHING TREND...SO AT
LEAST A CB WILL BE CARRIED AT MOST SITES UNTIL ABOUT 06Z.

OUTLOOK...ISOLD-SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED THRU SAT. THEN
COVERAGE INCREASING SUN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS...ESP AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ001>007-010>012-019-090830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
THE STORMS PERSIST OR REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.
REMEMBER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-090830-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
419 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1207 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

GAZ017-018-026-081700-
FRANKLIN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-
1207 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HABERSHAM AND STEPHENS
COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

AT 1205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CORNELIA TO 3 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CARNESVILLE. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WHITWORTH...TOCCOA...MOUNT AIRY...MARTIN...LAVONIA...HOLLYWOOD...
  FRANKLIN SPRINGS...EASTANOLEE...DEMOREST...CORNELIA...
  CLARKESVILLE...CARNESVILLE...CANON...BOYDVILLE...BALDWIN AND
  AVALON.

HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

KRENTZ