Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 070353
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

NCC113-070401-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-090107T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MACON NC-
1053 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM EST FOR MACON
COUNTY...

NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS MACON COUNTY THUS 
FAR...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT. AS MUCH AS ANOTHER INCH 
COULD FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD PUSH STREAMS TO BANKFULL 
AGAIN. AT ANY RATE...STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA 
OVERNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3523 8370 3525 8370 3528 8367 3529 8346
      3532 8342 3532 8334 3525 8330 3522 8327
      3500 8311 3499 8351 3514 8365 3514 8373
      3516 8374

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE MOVES
NORTHEAST...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE NC MTNS THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. IMPRESSIVE PW/S
OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. OBSERVED
RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS EAST
OF I-85 TO 0.75 TO 1.00 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SMOKIES. IT APPEARS
THAT THE INCREASING LIFT WITH RICH PW/S WILL YIELD ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES ACROSS THE MTNS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE MTNS OF 3-4 INCHES WITH ISO 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON
THE RIDGES. WE WILL KEEP THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS.

SFC WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONTAL WAVE. IN FACT...WINDS BETWEEN 2-4 KFT MAY REACH 60-70
KTS BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATED SOIL AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY RESULT IN UPROOTED TREES ON ROADS AND POWER LINES.

AT 1930Z...THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.
LATEST SFC TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH L60S TO THE SOUTH. MESOSCALE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE
WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY RETREATING TONIGHT. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN VERY MILD SOUTH OF THE WEDGE...WITH STEADY TEMPS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE
MTNS BETWEEN 7-12Z WEDS. HELICITY VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SURGE TO 400-600 WITH SWEAT VALUES REMAINING 400 OR GREATER.
IN ADDITION...NAM INDICATES THAT CAPE VALUES OF 40-100 J/KG ALONG
THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT QLCS TORNADOES OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TO SUNRISE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AFTER
18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHRA COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SCT SHRA MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...THE NAM BRINGS AN ADVECTIVE SHORT WAVE INTO
THE NC MTNS AROUND 0600 UTC ON THU. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF PCPN
WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE NAM. HPC LIKED THIS SOLUTION WITH THEIR
INTERNAL SNOWFALL GRAPHICS...BRINGING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NRN NC MTNS ALONG THE TN LINE. I/VE TONED THIS DOWN
A BIT...BUT I STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN LINE. I DID UP
THE TOTALS A BIT DOWN ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES AS THE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH FAVORS HIGHER TOTALS IN
THESE LOCATIONS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE NC MTNS FOR WED
NIGHT.

WINDS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY THU MORNING. RIGHT NOW
WIND SPEEDS DON/T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY DAMAGE...BUT THEY
WILL BE PUSHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THU NGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z SAT WITH AN UPPER
LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WRT THE PROPAGATION OF A BROAD
UPPER LVL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NEW HPC GUIDANCE. AT THE
SFC...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN
WITH NW FLOW SETTING IN AFTER THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN ON MON BUT IS QUICKLY PUSHED OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES
OVER THE REGION ON TUES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD ON SAT WHERE I WENT WITH A SOLID
CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA. POPS WOULD BE HIGHER EXCEPT FOR THE
LACK OF AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE. WE ALSO MIGHT SEE SOME PRECIP AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON DAY 7 AS THE NEXT FROPA OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS MAY BREAK TO ALLOW
MVFR DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
WAVE MAY STRENGTHEN SFC WINDS A FEW KTS WITH MARGINAL GUSTS. A BAND
OF MODERATE SHRA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 9-13Z.
AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE
CLT TERMINAL. LLVL CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION...YIELDING
VFR CONDITIONS.

ELSEWHERE...STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE RA ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STRATUS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RA...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS KHKY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CAD. OVERNIGHT...AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE MAY STRENGTHEN SFC WINDS A FEW KTS WITH
MARGINAL GUSTS. A BAND OF MODERATE SHRA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA BETWEEN 9-13Z. AFTER SUNRISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE CLT TERMINAL. LLVL CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>006.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

NCZ033-048>053-058-501-503-505-072300-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
555 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ059-072300-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
555 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ062>065-507-509-072300-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-
555 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-SCZ008-009-013-014-072300-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
555 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT. IF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATER...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED...
BRIEF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ508-510-SCZ007-010>012-019-072300-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
555 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001>006-072300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
555 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE