Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 170343
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1143 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

NCC023-027-170600-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-090517T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BURKE NC-CALDWELL NC-
1143 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN CALDWELL AND EASTERN BURKE COUNTIES...

AT 1140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE 
AREA FROM HUDSON TO ICARD. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL AT 
RATES OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY 
RAINFALL IS FALLING ON LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 3 
INCHES IN THE PAST THREE HOURS.

FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM HUDSON TO CONNELLY SPRINGS TO 
HILDEBRAN. STREAM FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY ALONG ROCK CREEK AND 
GUNPOWDER CREEK IN SOUTHERN CALDWELL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


LAT...LON 3579 8134 3577 8135 3576 8137 3570 8140
      3560 8150 3560 8170 3586 8168 3588 8133

$$

HG

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 170536
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

NCC023-027-170600-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-090517T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BURKE NC-CALDWELL NC-
136 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN CALDWELL AND EASTERN BURKE COUNTIES...

AT 129 AM EDT...RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA HAD DIMINISHED TO 
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS. RECENT CALLS TO COUNTY COMMUNICATION CENTERS 
REPORTED NO CLOSED ROADS OR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONDITIONS. 

HIGH WATER AND ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS ACROSS THE LAKE RHODHISS AND 
WESTERN LAKE HICKORY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR GUNPOWDER AND DROWNING 
CREEKS...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...THEREFORE THE WARNING 
WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 8134 3577 8135 3576 8137 3570 8140
      3560 8150 3560 8170 3586 8168 3588 8133

$$

CSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 02 UTC...SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN KBNA AND KCSV AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE MOVES FROM THE MTNS TO
THE NC PIEDMONT AND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE UVV AND DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS ORIENTED ACRS WESTERN NC THRU DAYBREAK. WITHIN THIS REGIME
WILL CONTINUE TO FCST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH JUST ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE STABILIZATION CONTINUES. EXPECTED
RAINFALL CVRG AND INTENSITY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MUCH MORE LIMITED
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-85 WITH NOMINAL RESPONSE DEPICTED
ON BOTH THE 00 UTC NAM AND 23 UTC RUC HRRR. WILL PLAN ON MENTIONING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR THESE LOCALES AND KEEP
QPF ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ACRS THE SE CWFA IS
SLATED BY LATE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITHIN THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BNDRY ARE STILL PROBABLE ACRS THE FA UNTIL DEEPER DRYING
WORKS IN FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING ONLY A SUBTLE
UPWARD TEMPERATURE MOVE FROM THE MILD MORNING MINS...WITHIN THE
SHOWERS...CLOUDS AND NE WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOISTURE AND
PRECIP RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUN NITE. KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH POP ACROSS THE SRN CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DROP
PRECIP. EXPECT CLOUDS TO TAKE A SIMILAR TREND WITH STRONG DRYING
MOVING IN. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL SUN NITE AS MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
MOVES IN...AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREV NITE AND 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS DO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE MTNS WITH
FALLING DEW POINTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH WITH DRY COOL AIR MASS
REMAINING. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY MONDAY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
EXPECT A BETTER RADIATIONAL NIGHT MON NITE WITH LITTLE WIND. HOWEVER
AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODERATED. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CASE FOR NEGATIVE
LAPSE RATE OVER THE MTNS...MAKING RIDGES WARMER THAN VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST IN THE VALLEYS THEN. LOWS
NEARLY STEADY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE THERMAL BELT AREAS AND
RIDGES. DRY AND MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THEIR
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY AGREE TO SOME
AMOUNT OF RIDGING BOUNDED BY A NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND SRN CLOSED LOW.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE OH VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APLCNS...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGING OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND SRN APLCNS. THIS MEANS THE GFS BEGINS WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW AND SFC DEVELOPMENT MUCH FARTHER NORTH IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS OFF FARTHER SOUTH. BOTH MODELS MOVE
THE LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NORTH TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER..THE GFS IS AS MUCH AS 36 HRS FASTER. NATURALLY THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS HAS SOME SUPPORT
FROM THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN THE BETTER PERFORMER WITH TROPICAL TYPE LOWS THE PAST TWO
YEARS. THEREFORE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN FOR NOW. THIS
MEANS A DRY FCST WITH A WARMING TREND UNTIL FRI. INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHC POP FOR NOW FOR FRI AND SAT...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACRS THE NC MTNS AND FTHLS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...KAVL AND KHKY WILL REMAIN
UNDER FLIGHT RESTRICTION THREAT DUE TO PCPN ALL EVENING. THERE IS
BOUND TO BE RENEWED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACRS THE UPSTATE
AND NC PIEDMONT LATER THIS EVENING...BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
REALLY LIMITING RESPONSE ACRS THE UPSTATE TERMINALS AND KCLT...
ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING
MVFR CIGS BEFORE 06 UTC AT ALL LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT...WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON TAP AS COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE
FA...AGAIN...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH LOWER CIGS
TO IFR IN MANY LOCALES. EXPECTING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWER CVRG ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

AT KCLT...GIVEN THE MODEL MIXED SIGNALS ON JUST HOW MUCH NEW DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS ACRS THE PIEDMONT BEFORE 06 UTC...HAVE LIMITED
THREAT TO A TEMPO -SHRA WITH CB MENTION WITH AT LEAST OCNL REDUCTIONS
TO LOWER MVFR. AS DEEPER LIFT AND MOISTURE ENCROACHES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND CONTINUE
TO ERODE CONDS...ESP CIGS...TO MVFR. EXPECTING A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BY MID-MORNING AS COLD FRONT PASSES...AND GIVEN SLOW
DEPARTURE OF MOISTURE BAND...KEEP VCSH AND ONLY SLOW CIG IMPROVEMENT
ALL DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR
SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CSH/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CSH/JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-
SCZ001>003-180230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1024 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS STILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF LINGERING HIGH WATER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR
FROST WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT IS
STILL TO EARLY TO TELL IF WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SIGNIFICANT FROST DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-180230-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1024 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KINGS CREEK             35.99N 81.40W
05/16/2009                   CALDWELL           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED MAJOR FLOODING ON HWY 18 IN AND
            AROUND THE TOWN OF KINGS CREEK AND ON GRANDON RD.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
830 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             2 NW SYLVA              35.39N 83.25W
05/16/2009  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED PENNY HAIL ON THE NW SIDE OF
            SYLVA.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
856 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

NCZ035-056-170200-
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-
856 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
ALEXANDER AND CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

AT 855 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAYLORSVILLE TO
LONGVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM TAYLORSVILLE TO MILLERSVILLE TO CONOVER THROUGH 10 PM.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KINGS CREEK             35.99N 81.40W
05/16/2009                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED MAJOR FLOODING ON HWY 18 IN AND
            AROUND THE TOWN OF KINGS CREEK AND ON GRANDON RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1016 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SYLVA                   35.37N 83.22W
05/16/2009                   JACKSON            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED FLOODING AROUND COPE AND SCOTT

            CREEKS WITH WATER REPORTED IN SOME HOUSES AND BUSINESSES.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1048 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ELK PARK                36.16N 81.98W
05/16/2009                   AVERY              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CRANBERRY CREEK IS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING IN THE ELK
            PARK COMMUNITY.

1040 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEWLAND                 36.09N 81.93W
05/16/2009                   AVERY              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY REPORTS SEVERAL STREAMS AND CREEKS ESCAPING THEIR
            BANKS AROUND THE COUNTY. THE WORST FLOODING IS NEAR ELK
            PARK.

&&

HG