Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
720 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(420 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009)
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BY SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(420 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING INTO THE BENTON HARBOR AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR WILL
FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  CONVECTION WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT INTO SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY...SO
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THEY TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A STRONGER WAVE NEAR
KANSAS CITY IS SHOWN TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY 03Z...THIS
FEATURE COULD END UP BEING RATHER SIGNIFICANT INTERACTING WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND A HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS.  SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING COULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD IF THIS HAPPENS.  THE
MAIN AREA WOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.

FURTHER NORTH THE CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY WHAT FORMS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.  GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE
WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(1030 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009)
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. UPPER RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WE ARE
EXPECTING THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE PERIOD WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE MON THROUGH WED TIME FRAME...
HOWEVER DRY SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO GO WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.

BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON THU AS SHORT WAVE
TRIES TO TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. RIDGE SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF THEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(720 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009)
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE SRN LWR MI TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ENE FROM THE QUAD CITIES AREA.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE... ALTHOUGH DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY STRONG LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN TAFS YET. THE THREAT FOR THAT
AT EACH TAF SITE SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE APPARENT BY 02Z AND TAFS
COULD BE FINE TUNED AT THAT TIME TO PIN DOWN A SMALLER/MORE PRECISE
TIMEFRAME OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY APCHG STRONGER CELLS OR BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS.

MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT/ENDING TOWARD
04Z-06Z. THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 16Z OR SO AS WEST WINDS AROUND 12-14
KNOTS DRIVE A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...(420 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009)
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST OVER THE LAKE
INTO TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 2 AM AS THE
STORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND FINALLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(420 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009)
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
THIS WILL LEAD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  STORMS COULD TRAIN
ALONG THE WARM FRONT LEADING TO PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER A
RELATIVE SHORT TIME FRAME.  A CONTINUES FOR POSSIBLE AREAS OF URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM...AND LOW LYING FLOODING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOODING WATCH THROUGH 5 AM TONIGHT ALL SW LOWER MI.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MJS
SHORT TERM:   MJS
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     MEADE
MARINE:       MJS
HYDROLOGY:    MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-200930-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN NOON
AND 10 PM NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLAND TO LANSING.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.  FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND FLOODING OF ROADS AND UNDERPASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

WDM MJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
837 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOLLAND                 42.78N 86.11W
06/19/2009  M1.30 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH OF RAIN IN PAST 15 MINUTES. WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED
            AT 50 MPH.

&&

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
845 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N HOLLAND             42.83N 86.11W
06/19/2009  E60 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CRACKING AND POPPING OF TREES HEARD. TORRENTIAL RAINS.

&&

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
908 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW CASCADE           42.88N 85.52W
06/19/2009  M1.64 INCH       KENT               MI   ASOS

            RAINFALL TOTAL PAST HOUR AND 20 MINUTES

&&

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
910 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.67W
06/19/2009                   KENT               MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4 CARS STALLED IN WATER OVER ROAD 28TH STREET EAST OF
            DIVISION

&&

JK

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