Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
428 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(428 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009)
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH OR END AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN... MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
96.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(428 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND THE SFC WARM FRONT HAS NOW LIFTED NORTH TO ABOUT THE I96
CORRIDOR. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 80
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S... AND CAPES ARE NOW NEAR 2500 J/KG
SOUTH OF I96. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. SVR WX WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING. TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW EXISTING OVER THE AREA.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY. SINCE WE ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED HEAVILY ON THE
ONGOING EVENT... HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND HPC
GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SW CWFA AND CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDER THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW ATTM CONSIDERING THAT THE FRONT
APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(428 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009)
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WX IS ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WX PATTERN WILL
BECOME A LITTLE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(105 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009)
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
FAIRLY LOW CIGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH. THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...
SOME HAIL AND BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS INTO THE LIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY.

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CIGS AND
AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS DUE TO ALL THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO
THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...(428 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009)
THOUGHT THAT THE INFLUX OF HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE LAKE WOULD
RESULT IN DENSE FOG... BUT WEB CAMS REVEAL OTHERWISE SO WILL CANCEL
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WINDS ARE APPARENTLY TOO STRONG. STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF FOG IN SPOTS ESPECIALLY WHERE SFC LOW
TRACKS. WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(428 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009)
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL EARLY THIS MORNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MUSKEGON TO MT PLEASANT... WITH AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50 SOUTH AND EAST
OF GRR. RECENT SUPERCELL IN THE LAN VICINITY LIKELY DUMPED QUICK
HEAVY AMOUNTS RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING. ADDITIONAL URBAN AND/OR
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHERE HEAVIER CELLS
DEVELOP/PERSIST. NO LARGE SCALE/RIVER FLOODING ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS HOWEVER SINCE BASIN AVERAGES SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH AND IT HAS BEEN DRY OF LATE.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
AVIATION:     LAURENS
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
606 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
606 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TODAY.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
436 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     FLOOD            6 NW MASON              42.64N 84.52W
06/08/2009                   INGHAM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD FLOODING AT AURELIUS AND HOLT ROAD. 10 INCHES
            STANDING WATER WITH STALLED CARS.

&&

GWETZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
521 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

MIZ065-066-072-073-082200-
BARRY-CALHOUN-EATON-KALAMAZOO-
521 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCHOOLCRAFT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...

  SCHOOLCRAFT...        VICKSBURG...          PORTAGE...
  FULTON...             GALESBURG...          CLIMAX...
  AUGUSTA...            BELLEVUE...           CONVIS TWP...
  CERESCO...            BEDFORD...            SPRINGFIELD...
  MARSHALL...           BATTLE CREEK...       ASSYRIA...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8572 4220 8575 4251 8506 4222 8486
      4207 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 244DEG 30KT 4216 8562

LAURENS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
546 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

MIZ051-052-058-059-082245-
CLINTON-GRATIOT-IONIA-MONTCALM-
546 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF HUBBARDSTON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...

  FENWICK...            PALO...               VICKERYVILLE...
  BUTTERNUT...          CRYSTAL...            HUBBARDSTON...
  CARSON CITY...        POMPEII...            BRIDGEVILLE...
  PERRINTON...          ITHACA...             MAPLE RAPIDS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 8458 4307 8452 4307 8506 4319 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 261DEG 15KT 4309 8505

LAURENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
555 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             5 S MIDDLEVILLE         42.64N 85.45W
06/08/2009  E0.25 INCH       BARRY              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL. WIND GUST TO 50 MPH.

&&

MKALEMBK

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