River Flood Warning 49, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WGUS83 KGRR 161331
FLSGRR


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
931 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...

  GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON AFFECTING JACKSON COUNTY

.HEAVY RAIN HAD MOVED OUT OF JACKSON AS OF 9 AM AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON HAD ALREADY
CRESTED AS OF 9 AM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE AROUND 
BARRICADES OR DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL 
RADIO... TELEVISION... OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR HOMEPAGE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRR.  

&&

MIC075-161401-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-090517T0608Z/
/JACM4.1.ER.090516T1737Z.090516T1800Z.090516T1808Z.NO/
931 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER AT JACKSON
* AT 7 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 13.8 FEET. 
  THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 11.3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(1140 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009)
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
WILL BE RATHER WINDY AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND
DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1140 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)

WE WILL ISSUE A QUICK FCST UPDATE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR HSAA. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES AND IONIA AND CLINTON COUNTIES. RGNL
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN HSA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL HSA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(248 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009)
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
FORECAST CONCERN DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN US TRYING
TO MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT BEING FLATTENED BY THE POLAR VORTEX
OVER HUDSON BAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE CWA MONDAY.
THAT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH FROM CANADA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF
IT...THERE SHOULDN/T BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY DOESN/T LOOK HIGH AT THIS POINT EITHER. THUS WE ONLY
WENT WITH SLGT CHC POPS. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO THE CWA. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND
THEREFORE IS MORE WET. GIVEN THE PATTERN THAT WE/VE BEEN IN
LATELY...I LIKE THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCY...WE WON/T HIT POPS HARD YET.

&&

.AVIATION (1220 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009)
THE CONVECTION FROM MO THROUGH IN HAS CUT OFF THE MOISTURE FLOW INTO
MOST OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE SE LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND 4
AM...I WOULD EXPECT JUST JXN TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT ALL TAF
SITES. THE NVA BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE CWA BUT WILL ALSO MIX DOWN SOME STRONG WINDS. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...(1140 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009)
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING... NORTHWEST
GALES CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE WE
HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE WARNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(1140 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009)
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
AND IONIA AND CLINTON COUNTIES. HAVE CANCELLED THE WATCH NORTH OF
THERE BASED ON LATEST RGNL RADAR TRENDS/MESOANALYSIS. ALSO OF
NOTE... GROUND TRUTH RAINFALL REPORTS THIS EVENING FROM JXN AND
BROOKLYN IN JACKSON COUNTY INDICATE THAT KGRR STP IS OVERESTIMATING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY. EVEN SO... CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW
SOME MDT TO POTENTIALLY HVY RAIN COULD IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN HSA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES PLUS IONIA
AND CLINTON COUNTIES.
LM...GALE WARNING FOR ST JOE TO MANISTEE FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE/LAURENS
SHORT TERM:   LAURENS
LONG TERM:    93
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       MEADE/LAURENS
HYDROLOGY:    LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-161015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
715 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. RAINFALL COULD BE
HEAVY WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN AN INCH WHERE THE STORMS PERSIST. THE
MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM LATE TONIGHT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS QUITE LOW.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

FROST AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION TONIGHT IS UNLIKELY BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PLEASE PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND RAPIDS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LMZ844>849-161015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
715 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE AS A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT LATER TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION TONIGHT IS UNLIKELY BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO PLEASE PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN GRAND RAPIDS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAURENS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1213 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

MIZ067-074-160515-
INGHAM-JACKSON-
1213 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
JACKSON TO 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROOKLYN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...

  BROOKLYN...           JACKSON...            GRASS LAKE...
  STOCKBRIDGE...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4212 8462 4258 8415 4208 8413 4207 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 217DEG 33KT 4214 8444 4196 8408

WDM