Gale Warning 11, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
937 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM AND MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009)
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
RAIN AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT.  THIS
SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO MOVE IN.  ANOTHER STORM MAY ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(937 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL BE DROPPING
THE WIND ADVISORY INLAND...AND DOWNGRADING THE HIGH WIND WARNING
ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO AN ADVISORY. PRODUCTS WILL BE COMING SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009)
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
WARM UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS MORE TEMPERED NOW.
THE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES OCCLUDES AND THE WARM AIR SEEMS TO NEVER
GET HERE.  SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE BOTH
DAYS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL DRIFT TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY.  HAVE BUMP UP POPS TO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BRING RAIN INTO AT LEAST THE SW
PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  THE LOW ONLY MOVES TO LAKE SUPERIOR
BY SUNDAY...SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NW WINDS BRING IN COOLER AIR.  WE SHOULD DRY OUT BY
MONDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FURTHER INTO CANADA.
&&

.AVIATION...(755 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2009)
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES AS WELL...
UNDERNEATH BANDS OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO
BE RECENTLY SUBSIDING ESPECIALLY INLAND... SO WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS
IN THE TAFS BELOW 30 KNOTS WITH EXCEPTION OF MKG. SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
STILL REMAINING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.MARINE...(937 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009)
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE STORM WARNING TO A GALE WARNING. PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009)
HEAVIEST RAIN OVERNIGHT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. RAINFALL
SOUTH OF HOLLAND/GRAND RAPIDS AND LANSING WAS MUCH LESS. RIVER
LEVELS WERE ALREADY LOW...AND THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD NOT
AFFECT RIVER LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...BUT HYDRO CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THAT IT HAS BEEN A DRY MONTH. RAINFALL TONIGHT SHOULD BE
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING ALONG LAKESHORE / WIND ADVISORY INLAND
TONIGHT.
LM...STORM WARNING TONIGHT ENTIRE NEARSHORE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MJS
SHORT TERM:   NJJ
LONG TERM:    JK
AVIATION:     MEADE
MARINE:       NJJ
HYDROLOGY:    MJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
534 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN         42.40N 86.29W
09/28/2009  M60.00 MPH       VAN BUREN          MI   OTHER FEDERAL

            SOUTH HAVEN GLERL SITE

&&

JK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
620 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STONY LAKE              43.56N 86.50W
09/28/2009                   OCEANA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OAK TREE UPROOTED. ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE IN AREA.
            ESTIMATED TIME.

&&

JK