Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
215 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT/SATURDAY. CONVECTION INCREASING OVER NC WI
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER ALOFT DROPS IN WITH DIGGING UPPER TROF.
WV LOOPS SHOWS A VORT TRACKING OVER NC WI WHICH PRODUCED A FUNNEL
CLOUD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN NORTH OF LNL EARLIER THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE CONVECTION OVER NW WI INCREASING AS THIS COLDER AIR
ALOFT WAS CREATING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. WILL GO WITH CAT POPS
THIS EVENING WITH SCT SOUTH TO MORE NUMEROUS NORTH. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONVECTION
INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL
CONTINUE TSRA MENTION GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING PCPN MENTION AND TEMPS FOR SATURDAY.
EXPECT A LULL IN THE MORNING THEN SOME DIURNAL INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT FRI. AMPLIFIED MEAN FLOW STILL
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN TO A CERTAIN DEGREE NXT WEEK...HOWEVER A
GENERAL TROFFINESS WL REMAIN OVR THE ERN CONUS WITH AN UPR RDG OVR
THE ROCKIES. THIS PATN KEEPS NE WI UNDER A COOL NW FLOW AND A
GENERALLY DRY CONDITION. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TO BE TEMPS EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND THEN WHEN TO BRING IN THE NXT CHC OF PCPN.

MDLS CONT TO TREND FAST WITH THE EXODUS OF THE SHRTWV TROF SAT
NGT. DVM/RELATIVELY STG SUBSIDENCE TO MOV INTO THE FCST AREA EARLY
IN THE EVENING AND SHOULD END ANY LINGERING SHWR ACTIVITY. PREFER
TO MENTION MAINLY ISOLATED SHWRS FOR EXTREME ERN WI (MAINLY EAST
OF AN IMT-MTW LINE) FOR THE EVENING...OTHERWISE HAVE GONE DRY WITH
A SLOW CLEARING TREND DURING THE OVRNGT HRS. COOL NW WNDS WL USHER
IN AUTUMNAL-LIKE TEMPS WITH MOST OF NE WI SEEING READINGS IN THE
40S.

HI PRES IS FCST TO BEGIN BUILDING SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. COOL AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN THE CU FIELD DURING THE DAY...THUS MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WL PREVAIL. HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS DUE TO A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

THE HI PRES SETTLES PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVR WI SUNDAY NGT WHICH WL
LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY NGT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. CLR SKIES...LGT
WNDS AND COOL/DRY AIRMASS WL BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF
THIS GROWING SEASON TO MUCH OF NRN WI...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST IN
LOW-LYING AREAS OF CNTRL WI. HEADLINES WL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED...
BUT WL ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO FOR NOW. EVEN THO THE UPR TROF IS
STILL JUST TO OUR EAST ON MON...HI PRES AT THE SFC WL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY WITH LGT WNDS. THE VERY COOL START TO THE
DAY SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEG RANGE ACROSS NE WI
WHICH WOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

NOT QUITE AS COLD OVR THE FCST AREA MON NGT AS THE SFC HI SHIFTS
EAST A BIT AND A TOUCH OF SW WND DVLPS. NONTHELESS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST OVR THE NORTHWOODS. ANOTHER
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED FOR TUE AS THE MAIN BRANCHES
OF THE JET ARE EITHER WELL NORTH IN CANADA OR WELL WEST/SOUTH. MAX
TEMPS WL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN MON WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
LWR 70S. HI PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NE WI WEATHER THRU WED AS
THE RGN SITS BETWEEN JET STREAMS WITH NO FNTL BOUNDARIES OR
SHRTWVS IN THE VCNTY. TEMPS WL CONT THEIR SLOW UPWARD RISE WITH
READINGS IN THE LWR TO MIDDLE 70S.

ATTN TURNS TOWARD THE MIDWEST ON THU AS MDLS BRING SHRTWV ENERGY
THRU THE ROCKIES RDG...AND THEN MOV IT SEWD. MDLS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SHRTWV TROF AND ARE NOW
PULLING THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN PREV DAYS. SINCE BOTH THE GFS
AND ECWMF HAVE LEANED IN THIS DIRECTION...PREFER TO REMOVE THE
SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON THU. MDLS THEN WAFFLE
WITH THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE SHRTWV TROF FOR FRI. THE GFS
FCSTS THE TROF TO REACH THE MID-MS VALLEY BY FRI...WHILE THE
LATEST ECMWF HAS GONE WITH MORE OF AN EWD MOVEMENT WITH PCPN OVR
PARTS OF NE WI. THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING POPS AT THIS TIME. THUS...HAVE
KEPT FRI DRY FOR THE TIME BEING AND WL WAIT FOR BETTER MDL
CONTINUITY. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER EC WI FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT.  AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
WITH ISOLD IFR CIGS/VSYBS WITH TSRA/S.
&&

.MARINE...WILL BE COORDINATING SCA HEADLINES WITH AREA OFFICES
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS NO CONSENSUS WITH HEADLINE WILL DELAY
THE ISSUANCE AND CONTINUE MENTION IN THE TEXT.  REMOVED THE
WATERSPOUT MENTION FROM THE HWO EARLIER TODAY DUE TO PROGGED WINDS
TO BE HIGHER THIS WEEKEND. BUT DUE NOTE THE VORT WHICH PRODUCED
THE FUNNEL CLOUD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LESS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TDH/AK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
134 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

WIZ005-010>012-282300-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON
134 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED NORTH OF LAND O LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...

A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT INVADING NORTHERN WISCONSIN WAS CREATING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. AT 110 PM CDT...A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED
NORTH OF LAND O LAKES...JUST NORTH OF THE VILAS COUNTY AND UPPER
MICHIGAN BORDER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  ON RARE OCCASIONS SOME OF THESE
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BRIEFLY MAKE CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE...USUALLY
PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO DAMAGE. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IF YOU
SPOT A FUNNEL CLOUD IS TO SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TDH