Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
458 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...
455 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

CANCELLED THE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

WAS GOING TO JUST DROP THE HIGHLIGHT EARLIER...BUT MADE MORE
EXTENSIVE CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS THAN I HAD EXPECTED.
BIGGEST CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE WIND AND PRECIPITATION PORTION OF
THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAVE BROUGHT WIND SPEEDS UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. HAVE NOT PULLED THE TRIGGER ON A WIND ADVISORY YET
BECAUSE I WANT A CHANCE TO LOOK AT NEW 00Z GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
TO CONFIRM MY THOUGHT OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. IF THIS WORKS OUT...WILL LIKELY ISSUE AT LEAST A WIND
HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY LATER THIS EVENING.

WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING MEASURABLE SNOW AMOUNTS IS
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT ANYWAY. WITH
MOST OF THE SNOWCOVER ALREADY CRUSTED OVER ALONG WITH THE CRYSTALS
ALREADY BROKEN DOWN TO THE BRISK WIND TODAY...FEEL MOST OF THE
SNOW WILL STAY PUT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED AND VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN ANY AREAS WHERE THERE IS
VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL OR BLOWING SNOW VERY NEAR THE GROUND FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOCKHART
&&

.DISCUSSION...
221 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP TO 33KTS IN THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. A CLEAR SKY WAS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT IN THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK
CIRCULATION NEAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE MAIN UPPER LOW NEAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THEN RETREAT TO THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRESSES WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POPS FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND WIND. GFS/NAM
MODEL WINDS INDICATE THAT A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE GFS/NAM SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. AT BEST AN ADVISORY WOULD PROBABLY BE LOW END.
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. DYNAMICS
FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. RECENT SNOWFALL
APPEARS TO BE CRUSTED AND LESS PRONE TO WIDESPREAD BLOWING SO WILL
INSERT PATCHY BLOWING SNOW INTO THE GRIDS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRATION
TIL 00Z FRI. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE DECREASING TREND SO THAT
EXPIRATION OF THE ADVISORY SHOULD BE OK.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED AGAIN
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP CURRENT NIL POPS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A RIDGE ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS ON
TUESDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO POPS
WILL STAY NIL FOR NOW. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND NIL POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO SO DO NOT EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES WITH A SNOW FIELD STILL
AROUND TO WARM PAST THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
RESIDE IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
436 PM MST THU DEC 24 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...NO SHORT TERM PROBLEMS AS MID/HIGH CLOUD
DECK WILL STAY EAST OF THE KMCK TERMINAL. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET. BIGGER CONCERNS ARE
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE FOR POSSIBLE AVIATION HAZARDS. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251500-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
535 AM MST THU DEC 24 2009 /635 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 40 MPH CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 AND NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.