Wind Advisory 9, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 091556
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
856 AM MST MON FEB 9 2009

.AS THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTH... STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-100100-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0009.090209T1600Z-090210T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...NORTON...
GOODLAND...COLBY...HOXIE...HILL CITY...SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...
QUINTER...TRIBUNE...LEOTI...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
856 AM MST MON FEB 9 2009 /956 AM CST MON FEB 9 2009/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO 20 TO
30 MPH. PEAK GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REACH NEAR 40
MPH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND UP TO 50 MPH SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

$$
BLM

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 100002
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
502 PM MST MON FEB 9 2009


COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-100115-
/O.CAN.KGLD.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-090210T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...NORTON...
GOODLAND...COLBY...HOXIE...HILL CITY...SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...
QUINTER...TRIBUNE...LEOTI...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
502 PM MST MON FEB 9 2009 /602 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 


$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009/

.UPDATE...

MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH...NOW REACHING
OUR EXTREME WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS LARGE AND ORGANIZED AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SO HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO 100% GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR AND 00Z MODEL DATA AS WELL AS THE FACT LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWEST AND RIGHT NOW COVERS OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA. LATEST NAM/RUC BRING THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR NORTHWEST COVERING NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009/

.SYNOPSIS...
231 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. STRONG TAP INTO
PACIFIC MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED THIS FEATURE WITH A ROUGHLY 120 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OLD MEXICO. MID/UPPER RIDGING WHICH BROUGHT PLEASANT
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

FOLTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...
231 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIP
THROUGH MONDAY THEN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABUNDANT WAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AS FETCH
STRETCHES ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRATUS AND SOME FOG
HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION TODAY AND SEE NO REASON
PATCHY FOG WONT CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. GENERAL
TREND WITH REGARD TO POP HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE ONSET BY A FEW
HOURS. STILL FEEL BENEFICIAL MOISTURE WILL FIND ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHUNTS BEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE DRY SLOT BY 12Z
MONDAY. NAM AND THE EC ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WRAPPING MOISTURE
AROUND THE BACKSIDE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES
EVERYTHING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM/EC
SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY.

INITIAL SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM QUICKLY DROPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE THEN DUE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THIS WOULD PUT
THE GLD CWA ON THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGES OF PRECIP. HAVE GONE WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH A BAND OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH. ANY NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE H5 LOW WOULD
PUT MORE OF THE CWA IN THE LINE OF FIRE FOR PRECIP.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
NEXT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AS NOTED ON THE EC 290K SURFACE KICKS IN BY 12Z FRIDAY.
WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALLING TO LESS THAN
30MB...FELT CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
APPEARS MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH IT.

MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
EC/OP GFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DEPICTING A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY SO INSERTED LOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1020 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...WILL MAINTAIN VIS IN THE 2-3SM
RANGE WITH CIGS AROUND 100-500 FT THROUGH 14Z OR SO AS BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 15Z
PRECIP SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OVER WITH CIGS QUICKLY IMPROVING
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS WEST WINDS 20G30KT DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MOVES IN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
RATHER QUICKLY. BY 00Z TUESDAY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 10-15KTS WITH SOME SCT OR POSSIBLY BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

07

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091630-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
242 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2009 /342 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT WILL PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN COLORADO...BUT LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK. A STORM
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...AND ANOTHER ONE LATE IN THE WEEK
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW AREAWIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.