Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
235 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009

ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED CONTINUATION
OF BROAD SUB-TROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH A MID/UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REMAINS IN POST-FRONTAL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

FOLTZ
&&

.DISCUSSION...
235 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.

CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CAP IS BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE FRONT RANGE. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION SHORTLY. WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS JUST HOW FAR EAST COMPLEX WILL MAKE IT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PRECIP
MAKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH 12Z. SOME THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING POPS THROUGH
15Z OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES BUT OPTED TO KEEP IT DRY AFTER 12Z.

STAGNANT MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WEAK POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE REGIME CONTINUES.

TEMPS JUMPS TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 ON MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GFS/NAM BOTH HINT AT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA OVER
NEBRASKA SO OPTED TO KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW.

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE OF
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1057 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...KGLD RADAR DETECTING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD IMPACT KGLD FROM 0600 TO 0700. THESE
STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS
TIME. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT TO KMCK. CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR WITH STORMS AND STRATUS AND
FOG FOLLOWING. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT BOTH SITES.

FS

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1056 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009 /1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY AND A
WEAKER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STORMS
GENERALLY WEAKENING THROUGH TIME AS THEY MOVE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009

COZ091-092-110545-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
1047 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 1045 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF COPE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF SEIBERT TO 9 MILES NORTH OF GALATEA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

BULLER

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