Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
241 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THERE. SATELLITE/RADAR
SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN COLORADO.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT/SATURDAY. FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POPS.

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. DYNAMICS
SHOULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN
VICINITY OF AN AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS/CAPE. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
THE BEST OVER EASTERN COLORADO...ESPECIALLY YUMA COUNTY...WITH
PARAMETERS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. SOME STORMS MAY LINGER
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES SAT MORNING AND THEN REFIRE AGAIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SAME AREA IN THE
SOUTHEAST. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIPHERY
AREA OF DYNAMICS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY EVENING SO WILL PULL ALL POPS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME DYNAMICS INTO EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD TAKE CARE OF
THIS CONTINGENCY. SURFACE WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE AND SOME CONVERGENCE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS ARE LACKING
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STORM WHICH COULD DRIFT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY EVENING.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S THROUGH MONDAY YIELDING
MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 90. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 60.

IN THE EXTENDED...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TUE/WED FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU/FRI. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
COME THROUGH THE FLOW AND TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLAN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS WITH
EXCEPTION OF CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 30 THROUGH WED AND THEN COOL A FEW
DEGREES THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RESIDE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
WITH SOME UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
520 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING KGLD AND KMCK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. WILL UPDATE TAF SITES WHEN THESE WINDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH IN FUTURE TAF UPDATES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH 03Z-04Z. ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST AROUND 25KTS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS IN THE 10K-15K FT RANGE.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY SCT CU AT 8K FT OR SO WILL
DEVELOP WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15KTS.

07

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2009 /1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS. A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MID
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

BLM