Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
230 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

AMAZINGLY HIGH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS EXTEND INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THAT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 80S WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL BE RIPE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO ASSIST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A FOCUS WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ALSO
AVAILABLE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE LINGERING POSSIBILITIES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES
WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND WILL MODERATE
A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE
WEEKEND.

LOCKAHRT
&&

.AVIATION...
524 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH
SITES, BUT CONVECTION DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME SHOULD AFFECT BOTH
SITES AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING, AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE
DURING STRONGER STORMS. ALSO, POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SOME FOG
AND LOW STRATUS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TAF CYCLE...AGAIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PASSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

GJG
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-014>016.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2009 /1130 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF TENNIS BALL SIZE
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

AN INCREASED THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TRIBUNE
EASTWARD ALONG HIGHWAY 96.

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY MAY
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM