Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
300 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

BROKEN RECORD FORECAST.  THERE ISNT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY VERSUS THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...SPAWNING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

LATE EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING AND
POSSIBLE COVERAGE...SO HAVE MAINLY HINTED AT THEIR PRESENCE.

MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW CENTER THAT
TOPPED THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOCKHART
&&

.AVIATION...
514 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FOR THE MOST PART STAY
IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE
THAT ONE WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND IMPACT KGLD.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AROUND 09Z IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THUS BROUGHT CIGS DOWN CONSIDERABLY AROUND
SUNRISE WITH A MENTION OF FOG...COULD BE VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
TIME. ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1021 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2009 /1121 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE...BUT WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
96 IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE...BUT WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
415 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

COZ092-262245-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-
415 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 412 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF AROYA...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER RURAL SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
501 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

COZ090-262330-
YUMA COUNTY-
501 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 459 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLARKVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

JRM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>