Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
301 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
247 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE.
LEADING EDGE NOW IN SW NE WITH A RENEWED CLUSTER APPROACHING OUT
OF ECNTRL CO. THE CO CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. I HAVE SOME CONCERN WITH HYDRO
ISSUES ACROSS YUMA CNTY SHOULD MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION COME
ACROSS THE CNTY. 88D ESTIMATES HAVE SPOT 3 TO 4 AMOUNTS FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY, YET THESE AMOUNTS ARE ACERBATED DUE TO HAIL
CONTAMINATION. NO REPORTS OF FFLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THIS
TIME BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HRS. I UPDATED
THE GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE MID-MORNING HRS.

OFF INTEREST IS HOW THE ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT TODAYS HIGH TEMPS
AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. I REMAINED
ON THE COOL SIDE OF NWP AND LEFT INHERITED AFTERNOON/EVENING
PRECIP FCST INTACT. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASCERTAIN STABILITY
ISSUES POST THE INCOMING MCS.

OTHERWISE, WE SLOWLY MODIFY AND PROGRESSIVELY DRY OUT WITH EACH
PASSING DAY UNDER AMPLIFYING ULVL RIDGING. BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
AFTERNOON TSRA ON TUE AND WED APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE CO ZONES.
THE HOT DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE KNOCKED BACK DOWN THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON SAT.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
1132 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAF...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD PLACE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR KGLD
AROUND 10Z AND NEAR KMCK BY AROUND 12Z. CANT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR
IF CONVECTION DIRECTLY IMPACTS ONE OR BOTH TERMINALS BUT FEEL
THREAT IS MINIMAL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
350 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
350 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009 /450 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY NOON TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. HAIL AND LIGHTNING APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
102 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

COZ090-100800-
YUMA COUNTY-
102 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 101 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WAUNETA TO YUMA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABARR...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

AEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
157 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

NEZ079-100900-
DUNDY-
157 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 153 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
WAUNETA TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WRAY TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HEARTSTRONG...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN DUNDY COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE
READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

AEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

NEZ080-100915-
HITCHCOCK-
346 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 244 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ENDERS TO 8 MILES NORTH OF PARKS TO HAIGLER...AND MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN HITCHCOCK COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BE
READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

AEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

COZ091-101130-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
425 AM MDT MON AUG 10 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 425 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARRIBA...OR 13 MILES WEST OF FLAGLER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

AEP