Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1207 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2009

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE
PARKED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN JUST A TAD AND
NUDGE EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES...BUT LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
VARYING DEGREES OF NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SLIDE
DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
BETWEEN 00/06Z. MODELS NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THEN
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH HELP FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
SBCAPE AXIS OF UP TO 1500 J/KG WILL EXTEND FROM WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30KTS PRIOR TO 00Z...INCREASING TO 40KTS AFTER
00Z WITH SPEED MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX. SO GIVEN WHAT
HAS HAPPENED THE PAST FEW DAYS THOSE PARAMETERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...WITH A COLD
FRONT ADDED TO THE MIX. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
BE FAR REMOVED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN FRONTAL PUSH WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT VORT MAX COMING DOWN THE RIDGE...WHICH
DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A DISTINCT LACK OF UPPER FORCING
WITH A HINT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...SO ANY CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL PROBABLY BE TIED TO THOSE
FEATURES. GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING AT THAT TIME...WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HOWEVER...WILL BUMP UP POPS CENTERED
AROUND 12Z/SATURDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AS WELL
AS A SURFACE FRONT. MORNING HOURS ARE NOT USUALLY BEST FOR
CONVECTION AROUND HERE...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THAT TENDENCY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...AND SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD. MODELS ALSO FORECAST A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND
700MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MAY ALSO
BE A FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS FOR
NOW...WEIGHTED IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
1206 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...  LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE.  BOTH TERMINALS WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS. A CB MENTION
AFTER 21Z WOULD BE APPROPRIATE FOR BOTH TAF SITES.

KJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
958 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241345-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
958 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2009 /1058 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRESENT A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

KJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2009

COZ090-232130-
YUMA COUNTY-
230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABARR...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

THEDE

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