Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
135 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. ONE MAIN CONCERN
LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. OVER
THE PAST FEW EVENINGS...AROUND 1.75-2.00 OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN
REPORTED EACH NIGHT OVER CHEYENNE COUNTY CO WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN TONIGHT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS
PWATS AT 00Z ARE AROUND 1.51 --OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

GFS/NAM HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. GFS KEEPS PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WHILE
THE NAM PULLS IT SOUTH ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. WILL CONTINUE MONITOR
CI AND STORM MOTION AS WELL AS NEWEST MODEL RUNS TO GET A HANDLE
WHERE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AND MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE UPPER 90S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DAMPENS THE SURFACE
HIGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS RELIEF TO THE HIGH PLAINS.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DESIGNED THE EXTENDED FORECAST WELL WITH A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA GIVING WAY TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

BURTIS
&&

.AVIATION...
512 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAF...KGLD RADAR GETTING RETURNS ON THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME MOVING EAST. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
MOVE INTO KGLD AND KMCK BEFORE 03Z. AFTER STORMS MOVE PAST SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVER KMCK. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARD SUNRISE.
SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1046 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009 /1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE GREATEST THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             15 N SEIBERT            39.52N 102.87W
07/12/2009  E2.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

0530 PM     HAIL             13 SW JOES              39.52N 102.85W
07/12/2009  M2.50 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CARS DENTED AND DAMAGED SHINGLES

0538 PM     HAIL             1 W YUMA                40.12N 102.74W
07/12/2009  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NNE KIT CARSON        38.88N 102.73W
07/12/2009  M67 MPH          CHEYENNE           CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
631 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             ECKLEY                  40.11N 102.49W
07/12/2009  E1.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HENDERSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
700 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             4 W CLARKVILLE          40.38N 102.70W
07/12/2009  E0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HENDERSON