Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 062015
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2009

COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-014-027>029-041-042-070000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090307T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
115 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2009 /215 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON. 

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
AND A SLOW RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN
THE WARNING AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 062356
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2009

COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-014-027>029-041-042-070200-
/O.EXT.KGLD.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090307T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
456 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2009 /556 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/
THIS EVENING. 

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND A
SLOW RECOVERY IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. ALL OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN THE WARNING AREA.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 070145
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
645 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2009


COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-014-027>029-041-042-070245-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-090307T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
645 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2009 /745 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING. 


$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MST THU MAR 5 2009

.UPDATE...
507 PM MST THU MAR 5 2009

ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. GETTING A FEW CALLS REGARDING
SMELL OF SMOKE IN THE GOODLAND AREA. SATELLITE PICS SHOW A FIRE
ORIGINATING IN NORTHEAST LOGAN/NORTHWEST SEDGEWICK COUNTIES OF
COLORADO. THE NARROW SMOKE PLUME FROM THAT FIRE NOSED INTO SAINT
FRANCIS AND GOODLAND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AT
GOODLAND FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. VIS AND RADAR DO NOT SHOW ANY
FIRES AT PRESENT TIME AND AM THINKING THE SMELL OF SMOKE IS FROM
THE FIRES NEAR THE CO/NEBRASKA BORDER.

07
&&

.DISCUSSION...
250 PM MST THU MAR 5 2009

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATED FIRE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE LONGER TERM CONCERNS
INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
2/3S OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRIDAY UNTIL AFTER
THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON COMES TO AN END TO
AVOID ANY POSSIBLE PRODUCT CONFUSION. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER RH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY ADDITIONAL
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS SINCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
MARGINAL WITH REGARD TO MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY IS HIGHER SO HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND EXTENDED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGE OF PHASE OR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM BRIEFLY BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...SO
ONLY EXPECT A BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...
1020 PM MST THU MAR 5 2009

FOR THE 00Z TAFS AT KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT CREATING LGT/VAR WINDS.
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SOUTHEAST WINDS START TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS
OF 30KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AT KGLD WHILE AT KMCK WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AT 12KTS.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT
BY 00Z SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD KGLD. EXACT POSITION OF THIS LOW
WILL DICTATE WHETHER KGLD HAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OR SOUTHWEST
WINDS. IF SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AT KGLD THEY WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 20-25KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS
FINE TUNE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THERE IS
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIMITED SFC INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
SOME CU/TCU NEAR KGLD. OTHERWISE...CURRENT MODELS SHOWING SFC LOW
OVER KGLD FROM 00Z-06Z SO HAVE GONE VRB05KTS WHILE AT KMCK WET
WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT 11KTS OR SO.

07

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...NONE.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ252>254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MST THU MAR 5 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
600 PM MST THU MAR 5 2009 /700 PM CST THU MAR 5 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY...EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AND MOST OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. SOME RELIEF TO THE
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.