Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 061257
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2009

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA...

.MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRES CAN START EASILY AND QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

COZ252>254-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-062100-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0004.090206T1800Z-090207T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
557 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2009 /657 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/
THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/
THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 070012
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2009

COZ252>254-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-070115-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090207T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
512 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2009 /612 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

WIND SPEEDS HAVE RAPIDLY DECREASED THIS EVENING AND THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
604 PM MST THU FEB 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING A SUNNY SKY ACROSS THE REGION. A
LARGE RIDGE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
ON SATURDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE EAST PUTTING NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT/FRIDAY. THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO ON SUNDAY.

THE MAIN CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS AND FIRE WEATHER.

SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING NIL POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL SUNDAY.  A SHORTWAVE DOES COME THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS A LACK OF MOISTURE SO POPS WILL REMAIN NIL. DYNAMICS
START AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. CURRENT POPS FOR THE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE. ONE OF THE MAIN
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL FALL AND WHAT WILL ACCUMULATIONS BE. SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
START AS RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WEST AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST WITH CHANGEOVER TO A
MIX WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT MAY NOT TOTALLY CHANGEOVER IN THE
EAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
A PROBLEM WITH THIS STORM SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARISE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
HITTING 25 MPH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES. RH VALUES
SHOULD EASILY FALL TO OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES ARE MORE IN
QUESTION SO WILL KEEP THOSE OUT OF THE WATCH. PLAN TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 18Z-01Z. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOTS OF SUN AND WIND SHOULD HELP REALIZE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES COOL
SOME ON SATURDAY BUT MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. A CHANGE TO WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES OR
MORE NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 25 TO
30.

IN THE EXTENDED...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A TROUGH
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. RIDGING FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE FIRST TROUGH LIFTS
OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND
OPPORTUNITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY ACCUMULATES WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE
TO THE MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. FOR NOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
INTO THE 30S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-013-014-027>029-041-042.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ079.

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ252>254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 AM MST THU FEB 5 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
558 AM MST THU FEB 5 2009 /658 AM CST THU FEB 5 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE REGION MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE
THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WILL COME TO
AN END THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE REGION COULD RECEIVE ITS
FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME. INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST CURRENT
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LOCKHART