Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009

FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES...WIND...AND FIRE
WEATHER.

A STAGNANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE OVER THE WEST EXTENDS FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO OLD MEXICO...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH SPINS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IT WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. GIVEN THE TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS HAS LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONGEST AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND 21Z. IN
ADDITION...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS YIELD RH VALUES
OF 15% OR LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
REACHED. THE SCENARIO IS MORE OR LESS REPEATED ON MONDAY...WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE SAME AREAS. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A REPEAT BUT TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE HIGHLIGHTS.

24
&&

.AVIATION...
1040 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS DURING THIS TIME. MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE STEADY AND
LOSE THERE GUSTINESS IN THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013-014.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-
     041-042.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ001-013-014-027-028-041-042.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
     /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079-080.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ252>254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2009 /1140 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY.

THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE A HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER TODAY. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE
AVOIDED DURING THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.