Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WGUS73 KGLD 160358
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009

KSC181-193-160445-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-090816T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-
1058 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT/1045 PM
MDT/ FOR NORTHERN THOMAS AND NORTHERN SHERMAN COUNTIES...

AT 1051 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 1 
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SHERMAN 
AND THOMAS COUNTY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS 
THE AREA...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING 
THAT OCCURRED EARLIER.


LAT...LON 3956 10203 3956 10073 3935 10073 3934 10133
      3937 10202

$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)
200 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN UTAH MOVING ENE. AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. THE NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE AND FRONTAL SCALE LIFT SO WILL HAVE SOLID POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA FROM
GOVE TO RED WILLOW. A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE HERE BUT GIVEN STRENGTH
OF THE LLJ AND APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE THINK IT WARRANTS CHANCE
POPS. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.

FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
CARVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NO FORCING TO SPEAK OF DURING
THE DAY SO KEPT IT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT FORCING WILL AGAIN BE TIED TO THE
LOW LEVEL JET. IT GETS GOING AFTER 06Z IN THE DDC FORECAST
AREA...AND ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH LATE. MODELS ARE
QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF ALL THE WAY TO THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z.
SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH POSSIBLY
A BREAK MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE SCENARIO VIRTUALLY REPEATS
ITSELF ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH LLJ INTENSIFYING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION WEIGHTED IN THE SOUTH.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY)
200 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGE TROUGH MIGRATING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS NOW
PROGRESSIVE...A BIG CHANGE FROM THE CUT OFF LOW IT WAS SHOWING
PREVIOUSLY. SINCE BOTH MODELS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF TROUGHINESS TO
START THE PERIOD WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME...GRADUALLY
TAPERING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS CONFIDENCE WANES. WHEN THE
SYSTEM DOES FINALLY EXIT...EXPECT A RATHER STRONG RIDGE TO BUILD IN
ITS WAKE AND TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DWINDLE.

024
&&

.AVIATION...
1155 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

LIGHT WINDS WITH VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 23Z BEFORE PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 08Z OR UNTIL
FROPA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
VFR RETURNING AFTER FROPA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1053 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST IMPACTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
611 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 N BURLINGTON         39.51N 102.27W
08/15/2009  E60 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
631 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW KANORADO          39.42N 102.09W
08/15/2009  E60 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 NW ST. FRANCIS       39.90N 101.97W
08/15/2009  E65 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
733 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TSTM WND GST     BIRD CITY               39.75N 101.53W
08/15/2009  M62 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   MESONET

&&

BLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
739 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N RULETON             39.45N 101.89W
08/15/2009  E60 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLM