Wind Advisory 3, NWS Grand Junction, CO

Archuleta County, CO, Delta County, CO, Dolores County, CO, Eagle County, CO, Garfield County, CO, Gunnison County, CO, Hinsdale County, CO, La Plata County, CO, Mesa County, CO, Moffat County, CO, Montezuma County, CO, Montrose County, CO, Ouray County, CO, Pitkin County, CO, Rio Blanco County, CO, Routt County, CO, San Juan County, CO, San Miguel County, CO, Daggett County, UT, Grand County, UT, San Juan County, UT, Uintah County, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
411 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SPRING STORM APPROACHED THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE FORMING OVER THE NORTH IN WEAK WAA
PATTERN.

TODAY: MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHEAST UTAH LATE THIS MORNING...THEN SWEEP ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND EAST-CENTRAL UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM LAGGED THE
GFS ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT THREE HOURS AND MAY RESULT IN A DELAYED
ONSET OF SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ELEMENTS IN PLACE FOR A WIND EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST 7H FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45 KTS
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE COMBINED WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND VIRGA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE
WIND GUSTS AND ITS LIKELY THAT ON A LOCAL SCALE WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ON THE WHOLE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE...ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST
VALLEY AREAS AND EXTENDED ADVISORIES INTO NORTHWEST CO WHERE
INTERPLAY OF SHOWERS/VIRGA ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY TO YIELD
CONVECTIVE-SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT: SNOWFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
DIVIDE AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND SOUTHEAST MOVING ACROSS
ALL BUT THE DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. THOUGH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STRONGEST DYNAMICS WANE OVERNIGHT...
DEEPENING MOISTURE...FAVORABLE WEST TO NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW
AND TRAILING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SUSTAIN SNOWFALL OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. THOUGH SNOW-LEVELS WILL DROP
TO VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE FRONT...BELIEVE GROUND TEMPERATURE AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS PROBABLY TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS STORM. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
FOR THE CENTRAL AND UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO FURTHER EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL.

MONDAY: NAM AND EC HAVE SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORM WITH THE
DEEP CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
DAY. THUS...EXPECT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIRLY
CONTINUOUS SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH -32 DEG C 5H COLD POOL DRIFTING OVER THE AREA
PROMPTED THE EXTENSION OF THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH
6 PM. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY WILL BRING SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ON AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT: AS THE STORM PUSHES FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SNOWFALL WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH.

UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWFA TODAY...HOWEVER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH. MUCH COOLER MONDAY AS COLDER AIR SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AREAS WITH SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THE ECMWF HAS NOW
TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A CHANCE OF OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN THE
12Z RUN...AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW SHOW A
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS TREND IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED...AND
CONSISTENT...GFS. HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL DEEPER...BUT IF THE TREND
CONTINUES IN THE EC MAY CATCH UP. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE
BETTER TODAY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE NORTH...THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GFS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHEAST UTAH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. AND A -32C COLD CORE AT 500 MB WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD FOR CONTINUED INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY.

ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN WED NIGHT...WITH A BREAK ON THURSDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SO FAR THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS STRONGER THAN WEDNESDAYS...WITH THE GFS AGAIN HITTING IT
HARDER THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS MORNING.  A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO BETWEEN 18Z
AND 21Z...REACHING THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY 23Z.  STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT.  AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND 1 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER THE NORTHWEST COLORADO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN WIDESPREAD SNOW.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM FOR MOST VALLEYS...
         ZONES 1/2/6/7/8/11/20/21.
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ZONES
         4/10/13 FROM 3 PM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
.UT...WIND ADVISORY 12 PM TO 8 PM FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
         VALLEYS...ZONES 22/27/29.

SHORT TERM.....NL
LONG TERM......EH
AVIATION.......EH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>