Wind Advisory 12, NWS Hastings, NE

Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VERY ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE KGRI
AREA. ONGOING SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL FLIRT WITH
THE KGRI AIRPORT IN NICE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FIELD.
HAVE INCLUDED THOSE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT FOR THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY MAY ACTUALLY BE DRY. THAT SHOULD RAPIDLY CHANGE AROUND 21Z
AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS INTO THE AREA...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THAT WILL WRAP
RIGHT ACROSS THE KGRI AREA...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. COLDER AIR WILL
PUSH IN DURING THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW
AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 20KTS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...WITH MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAY. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS EAST BY LATE EVENING...WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE WILL RATCHET UP TO 30 TO 40 KTS IN VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2009/

AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO TURN MORE ACTIVE FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL STARTING LATER
TONIGHT AND PROGRESSIVELY TURNING WORSE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. INITIALLY FOR THIS EVENING NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AREA AS ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT A CLUSTER OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...COULD SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE KANSAS...NEBRASKA
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXISTING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO LOOK TO FORM BY MID
MORNING AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS.

CURRENTLY...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A TIGHTENING SURFACE
GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. GOOD MIXING
IS ALSO HELPING TO PRODUCE HEALTHY GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH AS WELL.

ATTENTION THEN IS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN NORTHEAST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING
EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...THETA E
ADVECTION AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.  THE HIGHER CHANCES FAVOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDER MAY
OCCUR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 700 AND 650 MB.

ON SATURDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW AND THE WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND BIT SLOWER
LOOKING AT MODEL TRENDS...WITH THE NAM THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
SLOWEST. A BIT CONCERNED REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SLOWER SOLUTION LOOKS MORE PROBABLE. THIS
WILL GIVE MORE TIME FOR HIGHER DEW POINT AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH
AND WRAP AROUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE SHOULD
BE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. AIR ALOFT WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH ALONG WITH LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES TO ALLOW LARGE HAIL.
A TORNADO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH VEERING WIND
PROFILES...ESPECIALLY IN AN ARCING AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW AND CURVING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE LOW TRACKS TO
THE EAST. A POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ARC AND MOVING EAST. I SUSPECT BY THE TIME
THIS LINE WOULD REACH THE EASTERN TIER OF THE CWA...HAIL COULD
POSSIBLY BE A BIT BIGGER THAN QUARTERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS STATE LINE. THE 700 MB LOW GENERALLY TRACKS
EAST ALONG THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS STATE LINE. A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOWS UP AT 850 MB ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW. WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB BEHIND THE LOW ARE FEROCIOUS...NEAR 60
TO 70KT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR
IN THE NORTHERN CWA CONSIDERING THE TRACK OF THE LOW. SOME
QUESTION ON HOW SOON THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. DECIDED WITH A BLIZZARD WATCH IN THE
NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO WARNING AS THERE ARE STILL A FEW THINGS
TO CONSIDER. IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM HAPPENS TO SHIFT NORTH
SOME...THERE WILL BE LESS SNOW. SOIL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RELATIVELY WARM AND SNOW WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT HOW MUCH BLOWING A DRIFTING WILL OCCUR...AS WELL AS HOW
CONSISTENT LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE. ALSO...WITH THIS BEING
MAINLY A THIRD TO FOURTH PERIOD EVENT...THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
TIME TO VIEW ANOTHER RUN OF MODELS AND ALLOW TIME FOR AN UPGRADE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER
STORM CROSSING THE PLAINS SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING EASTERN NEBRASKA
SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  THE WRAPAROUND SNOWFALL WILL LINGER
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONTINUING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.  OF MORE INTEREST IS THE STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT.  MODELS SUGGEST
MIXING WILL REACH BETWEEN H8 AND H85 WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING DEEPER
MIXING THAN THE GFS.  WINDS AT THESE LEVELS AVERAGE 45KTS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND WIND IN THE MORNING WILL
CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.  THE WINDS
REMAIN STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AFTER THE SNOWFALL ENDS...A
HIGH END WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACE THE WINTER
HEADLINES AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGH WIND
WARNING POTENTIAL.

A COLD 1036MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
H85 TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR -8C BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 30S IN NEBRASKA...WITH
SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

THE COLD AIR DISLODGES MONDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM.  HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PATTERN SETTING UP AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH
SOME 50S FORECAST FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY.  MODELS WERE AT ONE TIME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM BUT NOW THE LATEST ECMWF IS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE.
ATTM WILL MAINTAIN A STATUS QUO WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HPC
TRENDS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND ANOTHER CHC FOR PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARILY
LIQUID EVENT DESPITE MODELS TRYING TO WRAP SOME COLDER AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE/TAIL END OF THE EVENT ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT PCPN
LIQUID FOR NOW.

DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM HPC ON DAYS 6 AND 7.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ048-049-062>064-072>077-082-083.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ039>041-046-047-060-061.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
940 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2009

NEZ039>041-046-047-060>062-041200-
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-
940 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
LEXINGTON TO KEARNEY TO SAINT PAUL TO FULLERTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A KEARNEY TO ST PAUL LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA.

A BLIZZARD WATCH IS POSTED FOR THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

NEZ048-049-063-064-072>077-082>084-041200-
MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-
FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
940 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AFTER
2 PM SOUTH OF A GENEVA TO ALMA LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BUT THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW OF
THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ085>087-041200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-
THAYER-
940 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AFTER
2 PM SOUTH OF A GENEVA TO ALMA LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BUT THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW OF
THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
STOCKTON TO MANKATO LINE WHILE LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THIS SAME LINE. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEADING TO SOME PATCHY BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)