Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
STORM TO IMPACT KGRI DOES EXIST. THUNDERSTORM CHCS DECREASE IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS. ONCE THE STORMS PASS THROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  FOCUS IS ON SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT.  SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED NEAR
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS STATELINE.  SEVERE PARAMETERS ALL ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CAP HAS
ESSENTIALLY ERODED ALONG THE FRONT AND LAPS DATA INDICATE SURFACE
BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 4500 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO
IMPRESSIVE AT 40 TO 50KTS.  MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH DPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LEADING TO AN AXIS OF LOWER LCL
HEIGHTS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
THAT THE EASTERN NEB CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TREK
EASTWARD...WITH A NEW ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPING ROUGHLY 22Z TO 00Z
ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WE WILL SEE HOW THIS NEXT
ROUND UNFOLDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THE LOWLEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION
SHOULD SUSTAIN/ORGANIZE AND ROLL EASTWARD DURING THE NOCTURNAL
HOURS.

THEN ON THURSDAY...BOUNDARIES LINGER IN THE MORNING THEN MAY LIFT
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR STORMS.

LONG TERM...WILL KEEP THIS SHORT DUE TO EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER.
SUNRISE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND TEMPS AND
PRECIP AS RIDGE KEEPS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS WHILE WEST
COAST TROUGH KEEPS IT FROM BUILDING TOO FAR NORTH. A FEW DAYS AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE THE RIDGE WOULD BUILD IN AND WE WOULD BE HOT AND
PRIMARILY DRY. AS IN YEARS PAST...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY NOT
OCCUR AS DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND WEST COAST TROUGH MAY WORK
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  AS FAR AS TEMPS...WILL STILL BE
PLENTY WARM WITH SOME DAYS IN THE 80S AND OTHERS IN THE 90S.

COULD PROBABLY GO WITH OVERNIGHT POPS IN EVERY PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW
WILL INCLUDE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED AND MONITOR OVER NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
856 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E PHILLIPS            40.90N 98.20W
06/17/2009                   HAMILTON           NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
858 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TORNADO          7 W AURORA              40.87N 98.14W
06/17/2009                   HAMILTON           NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
900 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TORNADO          7 W AURORA              40.87N 98.14W
06/17/2009                   HAMILTON           NE   STORM CHASER

            CONE TORNADO ON HIGHWAY 34.

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
905 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TORNADO          6 W AURORA              40.87N 98.12W
06/17/2009                   HAMILTON           NE   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO ABOUT QUARTER MILE WIDE JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
920 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     TORNADO          4 W AURORA              40.87N 98.08W
06/17/2009                   HAMILTON           NE   STORM CHASER

            LARGE TORNADO ALONG HIGHWAY 34 DOING DAMAGE

&&

PFANNKUCH

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