Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
603 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE KGRI TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE 02Z THROUGH 08Z. CEILINGS NEAR 4500 FT AGL WILL BE
OBSERVED IN AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH 02Z BEFORE 1500-2500 FT
AGL CEILINGS BUILD IN ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AFTER 02Z. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL COME TO AN END
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH CEILINGS EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT ONCE
THE DEFORMATION ZONE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE RESTORED BY 14Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTS OF 20-24 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z...AND AGAIN BEGINNING AT 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

A LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES HAS SHOWN WELL WHERE THE DRIER AIR HAS
WRAPPED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP IN THE CLEAR AREA AS WELL AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RECENTLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH KANSAS TONIGHT.
TOWARD MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES MORE QUICKLY
TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS EVENING AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING THE PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS DOES TRY TO KNOCK THE RIDGE
DOWN BY BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS
SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE NEW 12Z ECMWF...WHICH INDICATES
CONTINUED RIDGING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEXT SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES. THE BIG STORY THIS
WEEK WILL CENTER AROUND THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON MONDAY AND THEN IN THE 70S THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
TO AROUND 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
342 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

KSZ006-007-017>019-NEZ041-048-049-063-064-075>077-085>087-191200-
SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-
YORK-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
342 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
FULLERTON TO HASTINGS TO STOCKTON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005-NEZ039-040-046-047-060>062-072>074-082>084-191200-
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-GREELEY-SHERMAN-HOWARD-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-GOSPER-
PHELPS-KEARNEY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
342 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS....MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
GREELEY TO GRAND ISLAND TO PHILLIPSBURG.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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