Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET STILL REMAINS
TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH. A MID LEVEL
WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED EAST TO WEST HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
THROUGH NEBRASKA AND HAS HOOKED UP WITH A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE TROUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS. WE HAVE ENDED UP WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HEBRON...CURVING SOUTH TO NEAR
STOCKTON.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND THE
DECREASING STRENGTH OF A CAP ALONG WITH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN
...WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STILL COULD HAVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. COULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SPAWN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AS WELL NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WE DO HAVE A SHOT AT ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN CWA NEAR THE 850 MB BOUNDARY AND IT HAS ALREADY GOTTEN
STARTED IN SOME AREAS IN OUR NORTH. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN IT WOULD BE NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH. THIS COULD HOWEVER SET OFF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION...AND WE COULD END UP WITH QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE CWA.

WITH HIGH PW VALUES AND MOISTURE FLUX...I SUSPECT THAT THE
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT WITH A NOSE NEAR THE PROXIMITY OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE OUR CHANCE OF MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TRAINING OVER THE SAME NARROW CORRIDOR. WITH
SOME BASINS BELOW 2 INCHES FOR THREE HOUR GUIDANCE...I FELT THAT IT
WAS PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...12Z TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...EXPECTING THE WET CONDITIONS TO
BE ONGOING...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW INCREASED LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS TO
THE WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z TUESDAY.  MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START THE DAY OFF IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE H85 FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS THE SFC FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE IA/MO/NE/KS BORDERS.  WITH PRECIP IN THE
AREA...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND
THE SFC FRONT...HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY...BUT EXPECTED MOST AREAS
IN THE CWA TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE 60 DEGREE MARK.  KEPT
IN LINGERING POPS IN TUESDAY EVENING...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS REALLY SLOW TO
MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS.  REALLY DROPPED THEM OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY SLGHTS/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE KS COUNTIES.

AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK...LOOKING TO BE A
FAIRLY PLEASANT PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TOWARDS THE EAST...AND A RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.  THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL CONUS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THROUGH.  AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SETTLING IN
ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  THE CWA
SEES A BREAK FROM THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR THE 70 DEGREE MARK.  WARMER TEMPS
ON THURSDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS IN CLOSER TO THE CWA...REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS TIMEFRAME MARKED
BY MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN AS ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS ONTO THE WEST COAST.  PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON FRIDAY TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA...WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED
WITH ENERGY BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD AND THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE
WEST COAST SYSTEM.  DID UP POPS FOR THURS NIGHT...AND FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH MODELS BEING IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE BEST FORCING AND QPF.  TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY
WITH SFC BOUNDARIES SHIFTING INTO THE CWA...BUT EXPECTING AN OVERALL
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DECIDED TO KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN
WHETHER THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN HINGES ON WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE
WHEN STORMS INITIATE ALONG IT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT KGRI WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
HAVE PUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
STRATIFORM RAIN POSSIBLE FOR AWHILE INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ENDING...LEAVING A LOW-LEVEL CU DECK IN THE WAKE. TRICKY SITUATION
HERE...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO SEND UPDATES TONIGHT AS THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS. ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER
WITH SOME STORMS...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS THIS EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ049-063-064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-017.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

KSZ018-019-012115-
MITCHELL-OSBORNE-
352 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  SOUTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIPTON...OR 27 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TIPTON BY 415 PM CDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3913 9868 3940 9857 3939 9835 3921 9840
      3921 9848 3914 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 211DEG 14KT 3925 9852

WESELY